Insightful article, Shamit, and great way to kick off this Substack! Got me thinking on a few new fronts, and I’m sold on trading BI for future flexibility and upside in Scoot.
You mentioned expiring contracts becoming more valuable in the new CBA. One thing I’m not that clear:
1. Contracts expiring in 202_ will become inordinately valuable
2. Who are all of the big-contract players who are expiring in that year?
I think starting NOW the expiring contracts will start to gain value. Teams will look to get out in front of this wave ASAP. Many of the new CBA restrictions go into effect as soon as the salary year turns. Each successive year leading up to 25-26 - when the new media deal kicks - will see considerable movement in terms of expirings IMO. Beyond that, it's tough to say. The cap may simply rise at a rate where expirings are no longer as valuable, even with cap smoothing. But in my opinion up until the start of the 26-27 season, they should hold more value than normal.
So if Portland loves Scoot and finally decides to move from Dame, all hypotheticals of course, what would be the next course of action if you are still looking to move Ingram?
Great question. I said this on twitter the other day, but logically the best way to get Scoot is to go all in on a deal with Charlotte. That is the ONLY way to guarantee Scoot. Trading with Portland carries the risk of Charlotte selecting him or trading with someone else. It also carries the risk of Portland deciding to keep Scoot or trade with someone else. A lot more has to go right for the Pels to work a deal with Portland.
If Scoot is simply not possible - I'd still try to explore deals that break apart the big three with at least one great prospect coming back. Maybe Houston and you get some combination of 4, Jalen Green or Jabari?
I think it would mean a few things. Firstly, I think it would mean they didn't find deals worth doing. Secondly - they are going to utilize the time bought by Zion, BI's, and CJ's relatively low cap hits. They are still a year removed from having to pay Herb and 2 from having to pay Trey. There is definitely time to figure out which direction to go in, and also time to give this group a more thorough look.
It's not easy to acquire talent at the level of the Pels current big three and therefore trying to build around it in the short term certainly isn't an unmanageable position. My personal preference would be to enter the new CBA and new media landscape with a ton of salary flexibility and capitalize on the wave for salary dumps coming - but the Pelicans can very well opt to stay the course and build around the edges.
With the new ruleset, triggering a hardcap is as easy as sneezing. Combined with ownership's unwillingness to spend large - I don't anticipate the Pels EVER being in danger of crossing the 2nd Apron. I just worry the continued investment in the current group will ultimately lead to neither the high level winning they seek nor the flexibility in terms of salary and assets. I think there is a decent risk of remaining stuck in the middle.
Insightful article, Shamit, and great way to kick off this Substack! Got me thinking on a few new fronts, and I’m sold on trading BI for future flexibility and upside in Scoot.
You mentioned expiring contracts becoming more valuable in the new CBA. One thing I’m not that clear:
1. Contracts expiring in 202_ will become inordinately valuable
2. Who are all of the big-contract players who are expiring in that year?
I think starting NOW the expiring contracts will start to gain value. Teams will look to get out in front of this wave ASAP. Many of the new CBA restrictions go into effect as soon as the salary year turns. Each successive year leading up to 25-26 - when the new media deal kicks - will see considerable movement in terms of expirings IMO. Beyond that, it's tough to say. The cap may simply rise at a rate where expirings are no longer as valuable, even with cap smoothing. But in my opinion up until the start of the 26-27 season, they should hold more value than normal.
So if Portland loves Scoot and finally decides to move from Dame, all hypotheticals of course, what would be the next course of action if you are still looking to move Ingram?
Great question. I said this on twitter the other day, but logically the best way to get Scoot is to go all in on a deal with Charlotte. That is the ONLY way to guarantee Scoot. Trading with Portland carries the risk of Charlotte selecting him or trading with someone else. It also carries the risk of Portland deciding to keep Scoot or trade with someone else. A lot more has to go right for the Pels to work a deal with Portland.
If Scoot is simply not possible - I'd still try to explore deals that break apart the big three with at least one great prospect coming back. Maybe Houston and you get some combination of 4, Jalen Green or Jabari?
So in the other timeline, Pels stay at 14 or trade back a few spots, this would indicate what to you about the organization?
I think it would mean a few things. Firstly, I think it would mean they didn't find deals worth doing. Secondly - they are going to utilize the time bought by Zion, BI's, and CJ's relatively low cap hits. They are still a year removed from having to pay Herb and 2 from having to pay Trey. There is definitely time to figure out which direction to go in, and also time to give this group a more thorough look.
It's not easy to acquire talent at the level of the Pels current big three and therefore trying to build around it in the short term certainly isn't an unmanageable position. My personal preference would be to enter the new CBA and new media landscape with a ton of salary flexibility and capitalize on the wave for salary dumps coming - but the Pelicans can very well opt to stay the course and build around the edges.
With the new ruleset, triggering a hardcap is as easy as sneezing. Combined with ownership's unwillingness to spend large - I don't anticipate the Pels EVER being in danger of crossing the 2nd Apron. I just worry the continued investment in the current group will ultimately lead to neither the high level winning they seek nor the flexibility in terms of salary and assets. I think there is a decent risk of remaining stuck in the middle.