Willie Green Year In Review

Dissecting the accomplishments and shortcomings of the 3rd year head coach

The Pelicans have improved meaningfully in the win column during the 3 years that Willie Green has been head coach. The job Green was entrusted with as steward of a reeling franchise has not been easy. He has seen injuries, drama, and roster turnover. Through it all, Green has managed to steer the team in an upwards trajectory. Yet despite the achievements, Green has obvious and predictable blind spots. The players first approach engenders a welcoming environment but also runs the risk of becoming a zero-accountability operation when the going gets tough. Green is very much growing as a coach, however, if he does not embrace a change in philosophy, the Pelicans will have their ceiling defined by their head coach’s limitations.

The Strengths

The most easily identifiable hallmark during the Willie Green tenure has been defense. The Pelicans have now enjoyed back to back finishes as a top 6 defense while employing players you may not view as solid defenders. Even during the OKC series, the Pelicans held the Thunder to nearly 10 points below their season’s average offensive rating. There are elements of three point variance positively influencing the defensive rating, but the fundamentals have been sound. The foundation of the defense prevents paint looks at all costs and is accented by rangy, switchy defenders who can be athletic on closeouts and the point of attack. Beyond the team success, Green coaxed defensive buy in from McCollum, Ingram, and most importantly Zion.

This defensive buy-in has been the backbone of year over year improvement in the win column for the Pelicans. Where Stan Van Gundy’s coarse demeanor quickly sapped the joy from much of the Pelicans’ roster, Green’s relatability has guys generally enjoying coming into work. There has never been a complaint of a toxic environment with Green and the “togetherness” has been a large selling point for the franchise. When Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Josh Hart were traded, both showed up to support the team the very next game. Green’s ability to connect has been lauded by hall of famers and created a stable off court environment that the Pelicans desperately needed.

The Weaknesses

Green’s weaknesses are a biproduct of his strengths. At the top of the list is Green’s inability to innovate in the offensive space. The offensive issues are two-fold. There is a schematic component and a personnel component. Both issues intertwine and contributed greatly to the Pelicans anemic post-season offense. They also ensured the Pelicans would secure zero fourth quarter comebacks this season in over twenty contests.

On the scheme, Green’s offensive system leaves a lot to be desired. The general structure of the offense includes a lamentable lack of player movement. There are also few engineered situations that put defenses in a compromised position or generate a quick basket - particularly threes. There are zero half-court lob plays in their playbook despite having a number of athletes capable of finishing above the rim if just a little creativity was involved.

Modern offenses have quickly discovered the value of the corner. Teams orchestrate entire offensive principles around manipulating low-man help which comes from the weakside corner. Smart teams will either consciously put their smallest players or their best shooters in those positions so the defense is always at a disadvantage when helping. Some teams focus on emptying out the corner entirely.

The Pelicans have spent an embarrassingly large amount of possessions spotting up their non-shooters in these corners. Valanciunas or Williamson would frequently find themselves “spaced out” in the weakside corner while an action took place on the other side of the court. Beyond the positioning of non-shooters, the Pelicans routinely failed to use them in conjunction with good shooters to distract the defense, generate easy looks, or in general pull defenders out of the paint. Van Gundy pioneered the inverted screen and roll action with Zion and JJ Redick that employed several of these principles simultaneously and yet there has been little desire from Green to go back to this look with similar shooters.

These lack of pick your poison principles have also held the team back from reaching its stated goals with three point attempts. Last season, the Pelicans had a publicly stated goal of attempting 35 threes per game. The Pelicans reached the stated goal 16 times. This season the Pelicans decided to up the ante and made the goal 40 three point attempts per game. They reached this new benchmark only 11 times. Moreover, they would have reached last year’s benchmark of 35 attempts only 29 times - still well under half the games. This is a zero accountability operation. More on this in a bit.

What doesn’t help is Green’s tendency to over index on defense comes at the expense of, well, everything. Green places such a heavy premium on defense that NBA veteran Garrett Temple logged over 1000 minutes his first season with the Pelicans, despite the team hemorrhaging points while he was out there. Pelicans fans are well versed with Green’s tendency to play defensive vets, but the issue elevated itself this year when Green would bench Valanciunas at half time to play Nance. This concept bore the Pelicans no fruit whatsoever. The Pelicans de facto starters were a -1.1 per 100 possessions. The Nance version was -4.4 per 100 possessions.

There was seldom thought given to the matchup when making this decision. The Nance group would produce a ghastly 106 ORTG and routinely got out rebounded. Instead of abandoning this concept entirely, Green went back to it in game 3 of the playoffs. The results were the exact same.

The repeated defensive oriented decision making plays itself out in a predictable fashion. Players like Jordan Hawkins, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas, and Willy Hernangomez have all gotten quick hooks when they underperform on the defensive end. But “Willie Guys” like Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, even Josh Richardson and Garrett Temple received an incredibly long leash despite mistakes of their own. Offensive mistakes or ineffectiveness are not held to the same standard. It takes only a cursory glance to figure out if a player is going to be a “Willie Guy” or not.

Look, playing veterans over young players is hardly exclusive to Willie Green. This is not a knock on him. The criticism is of the pattern that emerges and almost always circles back to prioritizing defense. Beyond the pattern, it is an inequitable system that unduly punishes particular player types. Alvarado is allowed to fumble multiple 2 for 1 situations and no one talks to him, but the second Valanciunas doesn’t close out on a Brook Lopez three point attempt, Nance will be at the scorer’s table.

Again, this is a zero accountability system. A “Willie Guy” only loses their minutes after months of an idea not working. It becomes worse when it comes to Brandon Ingram specifically. Green has had no reign over Ingram’s shot diet over the past three years. Ingram has never been challenged to embrace a different playstyle and it has resulted in deteriorating impact year over year. This is where Green’s easy going demeanor bites him. While he has succeeded in creating an environment where guys all get along, there is no real desire to make players (Willie Guys) uncomfortable.

Three years of this approach made it near impossible to make the tough decisions Green was forced to make when the season was on the line and he benched Ingram in the fourth quarter of the play-in game. If there was a consistent pattern of accountability, perhaps Ingram would have received the benching with more grace. Instead, Ingram was seeing pouting on national television and left the arena in huff. I’m told there was another incident with friction between Green and Ingram on the road after game 2. This is a culture coach without a culture. Good culture allows for accountability. Good vibes do not.

Where Do They Go From Here?

The Pelicans are not blind to the shortcomings of the staff. They attempted to bolster Green’ staff with vaunted offensive minds such as Mike D’Antoni and James Borrego. D’Antoni was brought on as a consultant during Green’s first year and has remained since. Borrego was brought in full-time this past summer to give Green an experience voice to lean on. Neither coach has been able to impart a more diverse offensive scheme on Green.

The Borrego situation is noteworthy. After months of media chatter and praise about Borrego’s offensive system, the Pelicans ditched most of it just a few months into the season. It’s unclear what happened between the two coaches, but the decision was an active one, and Borrego’s influence lessened over time. Many were excited when Zion shared Borrego had texted him and Brandon to work on actions after practice. For a handful of games, fans were treated to some two man game between the two stars. This too rapidly disappeared.

The org has supplied Green with resources on the staff and added shooters to his roster. Green has yet to utilize the tools he has been given to their fullest potential. My understanding is that Green has two more years left on his deal. This would mean there should be plenty of job security for Green to embrace true changes.

The pathway is clear. Green has to empower his offensive assistants to overhaul the system. He also has to hold players to the same standards while embracing lineups that might challenge his personal philosophies. Hawkins and Ryan won games for the Pelicans and were effectively banished or relegated to corner spot up duty when they did receive a sprinkling of minutes. Some of this falls on David Griffin and his staff to construct a roster that leaves Green no choice but to play more offensive players. But if Green wants to secure another extension with the team and find long term success, the approach to the offensive end of the floor must change.