Western Conference Tiers Version 1.0

Jeremy is back with the Western Tier List

Hey Guys: You missed me?

Well, the season has started and, as promised, I’ll be here bi-weekly to give you my tiers for the Western Conference. With teams only playing 5 or 6 games, I can’t really make any wholesale changes to my preseason predictions piece. However, overreactions can have your mindset in either a state of euphoria or in a tailspin. So I’m here to ask a few questions: “Are you happy with 🫵🏽team? Should you be happy with your team? Have you gotten outside of your silo, looked around the conference and seen if the grass is greener or if it’s dying?” If the answer is no to any of these questions: fret not! I am here to give you my thoughts on if you should be excited, or if you are like Bane and merely were born in the darkness.

Without further ado, let’s overreact to the first 2 weeks of the season in this edition of my Western Conference Tiers!

Fan Bases That Are Happy!

• Oklahoma City Thunder

• Golden State Warriors

• Phoenix Suns

Let’s start with OKC: your team owns the best net rating in the conference despite the fact your offense can’t hit the broad side of a barn (23rd in eFG%, 51.3, 27th in 3PT%, 31.3% going into Friday night) and yet you’re destroying teams because CHET HOLMGREN LOOKS LIKE THE CHOSEN ONE! He’s averaging 22 & 11 with 5 STOCKS while 2nd in the NBA in BLK rate (10.3%.) He’s also leading the charge for OKC being the best team at defending the rim at a ridiculous 50% clip (if you think that’s a fluke, they were the best at defending the rim in Chet’s rookie season.) Once the ball goes into the basket with more frequency: look out!

When I wrote about the Warriors in the preseason, my ultimate concern was how they’d fare without Curry on the court. Guess sweeping the Pelicans while posting a 117.1 Ortg is a good way to shut me up. GSW just continued to post split NOLA to oblivion & attacking defensive blunder after blunder. To make matters better for them, not only did Draymond play in both, he took it personally in the 2nd game and put on a defensive masterclass vs Zion and held him to the worst shooting performance of his career. He looks invigorated and stated “I spent all summer listening to people talk about Chet and Wemby and what they’re doing defensively. Don’t forget about Dray.” If that doesn’t get you fired up: don’t know what else will.

Lastly: the Suns. You’re 4-1, KD and Book look like KD and Book. The cries for a PG seemingly have been answered with the Tyus Jones signing (8.75:1 ast:to) and players are buying into Coach Bud’s philosophy on hoisting more 3s and not allowing 3s to be taken defensively (42.3% of shots are from 3, 9th best, 33.9% of opponents shots are from 3, 6th best. But the main reason you should be happy: Ryan Dunn looks like the steal of the draft. After 2 collegiate seasons, where he couldn’t hit the 3 to save his soul (12/51 at Virginia) he has become one of the best 3 & D players in the NBA ALREADY! He’s shooting 44% from 3 (on 9.7 attempts/36 minutes) while taking on the opposing team’s best assignment. And I don’t care if it’s early: Ryan Dunn at +1200 for ROY seems tasty to me! (Side note, Tony Bennett: you will pay for the basketball crimes you’ve committed. I don’t care that you’ve recently retired: you must be held accountable for your sins.)

Fan Bases That SHOULD Be Happy:

• Los Angeles Lakers

• Houston Rockets

• Portland Trail Blazers

• Sacramento Kings

Coach Redick, which is still weird to say (let alone type), has done the 2 things Coach Ham refused to do: play the best 5 players together (the D’Lo, Reaves, Rui, LBJ and AD starting 5 has a +8.7 net rating) and find innovative ways to have Davis be the hub of the offense (62.2 TS% and .608 FTr.) It’s everything you’d want in your leading color commentator turned Head Coach! (And yes: we’re gonna ignore their bottom 10 defense, their insane FTr that normally doubles the 2nd best team and they don’t take 3s at all.)

The Houston Rockets are actually exactly who we thought they were: a bunch of scrappy and athletic young players, who play hard for a HC that demands you to give a shit if you’re going to see the court. That time of effort, play and depth will always give you a baseline for winning basketball. Couple the fact that Jalen Green’s end of 2024 may have spilled over to this season, Tari Eason and Amen Thompson are just energy hellions to deal with and Sengun won’t continue to shoot 35.9% from 2 and you’ll always have someone to be happy about watching.

After Friday night’s game vs OKC, the Trail Blazers played the 3 top teams in the West (according to CTG’s net rating.) Now, some may say those teams’ numbers are inflated due to playing Portland but I really love their fight. I love their aggressive defensive mindset. Clingan looks like a contributor right now. Ant Simons looks to be his normal self. The game is slower for Scoot right now and Toumani Camara is the best role player you’ve probably never heard of. The roster is coming along and Shaedon hasn’t played a minute yet. If you have a vested interest in this team’s process, you should like what you see.

Speaking of one of those 3 top teams: the Sacramento Kings have to be the one dominant team no one is talking about right now (and I bet they like it that way.) After 2 close losses vs MIN and LAL, they’re on a 3 game winning streak, with a +38 point differential in those games. Their fans shouldn’t care that they’re vs 2 #CaptureTheFlagg #AceInTheHole squads and another who’s using the Notes App to list their injury report: good teams, led by their best players (Fox, DeRozan and Sabonis are all averaging over 22 PPGs) destroy bad teams they’re supposed to and the Beam Team are a good team.

Happiness Is On The Way!

• Memphis Grizzlies

• Dallas Mavericks

• Minnesota Timberwolves

Speaking of teams whose Injury Report is on the Notes App: the bug has hit the Grizzlies yet again…

…but Ja isn’t on it and that’s everything for this squad. Yes, Jenkins is cutting back minutes to start the season. Yes, you’re hoping some of these diamonds in the rough maintain their minutes: but you know…12 OUT THERE! Since the start of last season, the Grizzlies are 9-5 with Morant in the lineup and 21-53 without him. And he seems to have found his rhythm after posting a triple double INCLUDING a lob while on the ground! The human highlight film is back and that should bring the smiles back to the 901.

Gonna make this one short and sweet for the Mavs fans reading this: Happiness is on the way because my pick for MVP won’t have a 48.9 TS% and .274 FTr for the rest of the season. Also: you’re still 3-2 and Luka’s posting 27/8/6 despite the shooting struggles. R-E-L-A-X: relax.

I’m in the number of folks who don’t like the fact that Anthony Edwards has 67 3PTAs and 25 FTAs to start the season. But when you’re hitting them at a 43.2% clip to start the year, including a clutch 3 vs a divisional rival: why should T-Wolves fans care what I think of his shot diet? He’s adjusting to Randle’s and DiVincenzo’s games, trying to navigate an even more clogged up paint that the last 2 seasons with Julius and J Mac not being respected and yet he’s averaging 30 a night. The numbers don’t say it (only 14th in defense to start the year) but the maniacal defense is still prevalent (the NAW, McDaniels, Ant and Gobert lineups look like 7 people are playing defense) and that’s the straw that’ll stir this drink. Once Ant’s shot diet evens out, they’ll be back on their 50 win pace.

Is That Happiness In The Distance?

• San Antonio Spurs

• Utah Jazz

• New Orleans Pelicans

Spurs and Jazz fans: your happiness is knowing the struggles in this season will turn into triumphs next year. I thought these franchises would wait until the calendar flips but they’re starting the tankathon early as others try to compete. Utah’s 0-5 and while SAS is 2-3, their only convincing win was vs this Jazz team. Both teams still play far too many below replacement level lineups in hopes to get into this loaded draft class (albeit the Spurs should look a bit better once Vassell returns.) Just continue to churn out the scouting reports Sam Vecenie and Keandre Ashley (@hoopintellect on Twitter) post on YouTube and trust the process.

Ahh yes: we’ve made it to our team. When the schedule came out, most in the fan base had hoped for a fast start, due to being extremely talented, and then they find their footing as the meat of the season came in mid November. Then, in true Pelicans fashion: Trey injures his hamstring as training camp started, the “new starting lineup” never plays in the preseason, Dejounte breaks his hand either on a 3 point foul or trying to get a steal defensively, Herb strains his shoulder when Podz lands on it and CJ suffers an adductor strain all before Halloween! (HOW DOES THIS ALWAYS HAPPEN TO THIS TEAM?!?!?) And then the impossible happens: the calendar turned to November, the supposedly “raw” rookie center starts his first game, after playing well in his first 5 off the bench (he also took a bad knee to the nuts in the road trip), Hawk plays with aggression knowing he won’t be subbed out and, for at least one game, Zion and BI played well, and well together, with the weight of knowing they had to be STARS in order for this team to have a chance of beating a quality team. Because of that, I couldn’t in good conscience put our squad with the gloomiest of them all. However, now that I know you can play like stars, and play that way together, show it to me again and get over .500.

Hello Darkness, My Old Friend…

• Los Angeles Clippers

• Denver Nuggets

One of the biggest storylines was the Clippers no longer having to share an arena with the Lakers. The opening of the Intuit Dome was supposed to be the sign that they’d no longer be reliant on their Big Brothers in Purple and Gold. And despite having a multitude of bathrooms and a legit home court advantage…

…they’re 0-3 after suffering 2 painful losses to the Suns plus the Blazers gritting one out on your turf. The offense is just painful to watch, especially the starting lineup. The Harden, Mann, Norm, DJJ and Zubac (FWIW: Ivica has been incredible individually) starting 5 has a 105.8 offensive rating in 154 possessions. No defender cares about the shooting on the wings and when James goes HB dive, they don’t believe he can make it to the cup. By the way: did I mention that OKC has control of their this year, in a loaded draft? Because they have control of your pick, in a loaded draft Clippers fans. They have to start stringing some wins together, in that joint, before it gets ugly early.

Speaking of getting ugly early: the Denver Nuggets. Coach Michael Malone (I’m told that’s his legal name) called the league soft and had his team play through the 3rd QTR of their first preseason game in the States. He then, after losing GAME ONE OF THE SEASON, Coach Michael Malone says, on the record: “Going into the season, shooting was a concern of mine. You lose a guy like KCP, who’s a 40% shooter.” Not exactly a vote of confidence for the young guys who are tasked to replace him, DAMN SURE ain’t one for the guy who put the roster together. Their 2 wins have been by a combined 7 points, in OT, vs teams who will be hoping for lottery luck in 6.5 months. And in those games, the best player in basketball has had to put the team on his back (he’s averaging 30.4/11.6/10 to start the year!!) for them to squeak out victories. Furthermore, in their latest loss, they may have lost Jamal Murray for a significant period of time due to suffering a concussion in the 3rd before blowing a 10 point lead late in the 4th. For a team with title expectations, it’s getting late early for you guys in the Rockies, sorry that it had to be you.