Western Conference Tiers

Introducing a recurring segment by my podcast partner - Jeremy Wilson

Sup, y’all.

No, you didn’t misread that name: it’s Jeremy from the In The N.O. podcast. After the guys graciously invited me to join them, I asked Shamit if I could incorporate the NBA tiers I posted on Twitter onto his Substack, and he agreed. My plan is to do these consistently throughout the season. I prefer Tiers > Power Rankings because you aren’t inherently saying one team is clearly better than another. I also am going to limit it to the Western Conference, since those teams are more of competitors for our Pelicans than the entire league. However, with it being the dog days of summer (unless you’re so much of a junkie that you’re watching JeVonte Green clips), it’s that time in the offseason where lists are crafted to make you mad think!

So, without further ado: here are my tiers for the Western Conference!

Confident Will Win Their Division

• Oklahoma City Thunder

• Dallas Mavericks

Yes, I understand that division titles don’t hold as much weight as days of old, but it’s the cleanest way I could say these two teams are clearly ahead of the rest of the pack. Both teams have superstar 1st team All NBA players leading them (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic), number twos who have All NBA potential (Chet Holmgren and Kyrie Irving), and quality depth lead by premier young role players ready to take a leap (Jalen Williams and Dereck Lively.) IMO: these teams are destined for another playoff clash, which probably will take place in the Conference Finals, and will spark the newest rivalry in the West.

Confident They’ll Make the Playoffs

• Denver Nuggets

• Minnesota Timberwolves

While these two teams were a combined 1 game back of OKC for the Northwest Crown last season, I believe they have reached their peaks (as currently constructed.) I may be the only person who wasn’t impressed with Anthony Edwards’ Olympic performance, especially in the knockout stages, and it would have been lumped with Jamal Murray’s showing for Canada if the US didn’t bring home the Gold. MPJ’s injuries have turned a once generational prospect into merely an expensive 3 & Rebounding role player and KAT, while good, is waiting to do something untrustworthy late in ball games. 

That being said, I have them in a tier above the other postseason competitors since both teams have players that are systems within themselves in Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert. Both teams will still pump out 48-52 wins by being who they are but their championship aspirations feel far fetched to me.

Postseason Bound (THE PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT IS THE POSTSEASON!!!)

• Phoenix Suns

• Sacramento Kings

• New Orleans Pelicans

• Memphis Grizzlies

• Los Angeles Lakers

• Golden State Warriors

Predicting how 3-10 will land is anyone’s guess, and while I have separated DEN and MIN from these 6, that doesn’t mean they’ll have home court in the first round. Each team in this tier, and their fan bases, can boast that they’ve either made offseason improvements OR that they’re so top heavy that the talent will take over, but I have MAJOR CONCERNS for all.

Matt Ishiba boasted that “26 GMs would trade their whole team for our whole team…” And having headliners in Gold medalists Devin Booker (can you stop scoring 50 vs NOLA EVERY TIME) and Kevin Durant, I understand the excitement. But even Sean Marks would rather tank for Cooper Flagg than have to depend on Moe Williams Bradley Beal as their 3rd best player.

The Kings have doubled down on hanging on in the clutch with the acquisition of DeMar Derozan. The offense will be fun again, they have my favorite broadcast duo not named Joel Meyers and Antonio Daniels (I can listen Mark Jones say “MALIK MEANS KING IN ARABIC” all day) but their defense is the equivalent of KEE-GAN (Mur-ray) being Spider-Man holding off the Subway Train.

With the Dejounte Murray trade, the Pelicans have amassed (or tripped into) their best set of perimeter players in franchise history. Also: HAVE YOU SEEN ZION RECENTLY?!?!?!? Seriously: can I have what he’s having? Brother looks cut, happy and his goal is to “win it all.” But, with Pelicans luck, we’re now taking tryouts for any residents in NOLA who are 6’10” and above to help the center room.

THE GRIZZLIES ARE BACK! THE GRIZZLIES ARE BACK! Ja Morant’s healthy again. Desmond Bane seemingly took a playmaking leap last year before getting hurt. Marcus Smart and Jaren Jackson, Jr. will do defensive things that’ll make you ask if the refs are even looking at the court. GG Jackson and Vince Williams are probably the best wings you’ve never heard of. Shamit now has to root silently for Zach Edey’s success! Ignore the fact they have had a bottom 10 half court offense according to Cleaning the Glass for the entire Taylor Jenkins era and the fan base kinda wanted him fired all last season. THE GRIZZLIES ARE BACK!

Count me in as a believer that players 3-10 on the Lakers are properly rated. I also believe their salary slots are warranted. I also believe that their new Head Coach can’t craft a quirky draft that’ll change the fact they lack upside on the roster (and they may be doomed if either LBJ or AD misses 25+ games.)

Count me out as a believer that the Warriors amassing more depth means they’re a sure fire playoff contender. The only reason I have them here: they have enough of what the teams in the next tier are lacking, which is star power (Steph Curry) and youthful upside (Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Trayce Jackson-Davis.)

Six teams, vying for four playoff spots, with their final destination, at best, is a 2nd round exit.

Man, I hate the Western Conference.

Hate to Disappoint You

• Los Angeles Clippers

• Houston Rockets

Sorry (not sorry) but of the teams with understandable postseason expectations has to miss the cut & I’m out on trusting Kawhi Leonard. Couple that with James Harden inability to the rim anymore plus “Norman Powell, 3rd best player” and I’m not moved. More so: if Derrick Jones, Jr is the answer to the “who was the best Minimum signing of 2023” question, he’s also the answer to the “why did we give that guy multiple years, again?” one.

As for the 2018-19 Brooklyn Nets Rockets: congratulations on being NBA Twitter’s new “it” team.

Good news: you’ve gathered enough talent where I can easily put a 9 man rotation together. You may have also selected the rookie of the year (albeit, in a “bad draft.”)

Bad news: I don’t know if it works together.

Alperen Sengun looked like a snub to the All Star Snubs list from November to February. However, after a 13-9 start, they went 12-25, had the 5th worst half court offense in the league and Jalen Green looked as though he was on his way out of town.

Then the calendar turned to March and everything clicked. The team started the month 13-1, including an 11 game winning streak, before going 16-7 to end the season. Jalen looked like the scorer that was promised. Amen Thompson made every “little play” look BIG with his athleticism. Jabari Smith became the perfect role player. Dillon Brooks stayed within himself…

…and the near All Star only played in 5 of those games.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they came close to or repeated their 41-41 record, in a more cohesive manner. However, just like last year, that won’t be enough to crack the postseason field.

Face them AFTER MLK Day

• Utah Jazz

• San Antonio Spurs

So we’re doing this again, Utah? For the last 2 seasons, the Jazz are a combined 45-44 from Opening Night to the day that recognizes the greatest American who graced this country. Then Danny Ainge decides “enough is enough.”  Utah has finished with 23 wins combined, in the last 2 seasons, after that date. Danny Ainge has mastered the art of tanking w/o the backlash, despite having a top 40 player in tow…

…and I believe Pop and the crew are going to follow suit.

The acquisitions of Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes feel eerily similar to Ainge keeping Mike Conley post-Mitchell and Gobert trades and adding Kelly Olynyk to stabilize their guard and forward rooms. Having vets, who know how to win, will help nurture the young guys on that roster.

AND BUDDY IS THERE A YOUNG GUY ON THAT ROSTER!

December 2025. That’ll be the last month we’ll pause before saying “Victor Wembanyama is the Best in the World.” Hell, we’re probably just 4 months away from saying he’s the best defender in the NBA. He averaged 4.8 STOCKS and led the league in Blocks during his ROOKIE SEASON! He did this while playing ONLY 2106 minutes! He hasn’t even get the benefit of the doubt from refs on the offensive end yet!

But I wouldn’t be surprised if CP3 and the Black Falcon are moved by the deadline (for more value than they had coming in) with Wemby and Lauri playing less than 20 games combined after March 2nd, 2025 (the date of San Antonio’s last prime time game) because a new Unicorn is on the horizon!

Guys: Cooper Flagg declares THIS YEAR

• Portland Trail Blazers

Before the offseason began, I tweeted it would be an “organizational failure” if Joe Cronin didn’t trade his vets, not named DeAndre Ayton, for picks. He told me: “How about I trade picks and salary for Deni Avdjia?”

I get that a real NBA player, who’s under 25 and on a good contract, is good business, but HUH?

Look, I believe the hate has gone too far after Scoot Henderson’s rookie season but between the glut at guard and the Head Coach, this is such a woeful team with more questions than answers. Why are Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons still on this team? There’s no way Scoot’s coming off the bench again, right? Shaedon Sharpe still plays for these guys, right? Does Robert Williams need saving?

I understand they’re in “talent > fit” mode and these losses will be a means to an end but I don’t plan on watching them for a second longer than I have to. Sorry it had to be you.