Week 2 Recap: It's Difficult To Keep Up When You're Not Winning The Possession Battle
Notes and thoughts from the Pelicans finishing the week 2-2
Readers of the subby are well acquainted with my thoughts on the possession battle. This week the Pelicans experienced both sides of it. In their semi-historic comeback win against the Thunder, the Pelicans notched 115 true shot attempts to OKC’s 98. This differential came on the strength of the offensive rebounding, where the Pelicans crushed the Thunder on the offensive glass 22 to 6. More rebounds, more shots, more three point attempts, more three point makes - the math was on the Pelicans side on every level. It was only a matter of time before the math would wash the Thunder away.
The Pelicans experienced the flip side in the loss against Atlanta on Saturday night. This time the Pelicans hoisted only 93 true shot attempts to Atlanta’s 104. Atlanta bludgeoned them on the glass and secured 19 offensive rebounds to the the Pelicans 9. The Hawks also shot and made more threes and got to the free throw line more as well. Despite heading into halftime up 7, it would be the Pelicans who would get washed away by the math this time.
Rebounding has become a common theme. It’s played a key role in Pelicans wins, but it’s played a more important role in Pelicans losses. Willie Green is astutely aware of this. “In the two games that we lost, Golden State and Atlanta, they had big third quarters against us. Rebounding for sure is a mindset. Even when we did get stops, they got offensive rebounds, they got second chance points, and then it deflated us offensively. We didn’t go down and run our offense with enough force and pace, and we didn’t have enough possessions.”
In the two losses they have on the season, the Pelicans have given up 40 offensive rebounds while securing only 23 of their own. For a team that is going to be on the losing end of the 3pt battle on most nights, winning the the battle of the boards is paramount. “It’s difficult to keep up when you’re not winning the possession battle,” notes Green. “They’re getting more threes, they’re getting to the free throw line, they’re getting offensive rebounds, getting more possessions to score. That’s where the sense of urgency for us has to go up. When it does, we have a chance to win those games. When it doesn’t, it’s really difficult in the NBA when you don’t win the possession game.”
On a related note -
The Starters Stink As A Unit
“We’re aware of it”
That’s Willie Green again, acknowledging that the starters have struggled in the three contests they have appeared together. Going back to the previous season, McCollum, Jones, Ingram, Williamson, Valanciunas have appeared in only 13 games together - ever. To make matters worse, McCollum has just been diagnosed with a pneumothorax, which is the second of his career. It is unclear how long McCollum will be sidelined, but it’s unlikely the starters get any real opportunity to iron out kinks in the near future.
In the 3 games they have actually played this season, the starters are a baffling -16.1 per 100 possessions, garbage time filtered. They are completely unable to score the ball, with an ORTG of 98.9, and it’s hurting their defense. The team on average is spending roughly 77.5% of it’s defensive possessions in the half court, and that number is a disastrously low 69.0% for the starting group. Almost a quarter of the opponent’s offense is coming in transition against these lineups, and they are scoring 150 points per 100 possessions on those plays. It’s rough.
To make matters worse, they are not offensively rebounding the ball. Their rate of 17.4% would be 30th in the league for a team. Likewise, they are not shooting threes. The 3pt attempt rate of of 29.4% would be good for 29th if a team kept this rate up. Both are areas where coaching has relentlessly emphasized a need for. For good measure, this unit isn’t getting to the free throw line either.
This group has not had any time together. “That’s a part of it,” acknowledges Green. “They’re all getting accustomed to playing with one another, tryna see where guys want the ball. But we’re aware of it. They are aware of it also.”
Perhaps no better illustration of how clunky the starters look when together than when they are compared to our favorite lineup (the name is still being workshopped, you know THE ONE).
We all know the starters are taking less threes, but to rebound worse and get to the line less than units featuring a rookie and a two-way contract - that is a strong indictment of things going wrong. This fact hasn’t gone unnoticed by the coaching staff either.
When I brought up the pace and movement the second unit has played with, Green let loose a smile of acknowledgment. “They are just playing basketball the way we teach it,” responded Green. “ (They’re) not holding the ball, they’re playing with a point five mentality, they’re competing. Our first unit has times where they do it, but collectively we all have to do it every time we step on the floor. Even when you miss some shots. Even when you don’t get stops - get your offense up the floor and get moving, play the right way. For the most part we’re doing it but we’re having some lapses in that third quarter.”
Unfortunately for Green and us as well, we don’t know when we will see the full group again. The Pelicans have a tough slate of games coming up and there’s no clear way to replace McCollum’s production on a team already so hampered by injuries. My guess is that the rookie, Jordan Hawkins, will get to start so the staff can maintain some level of shooting with the group. With McCollum sidelined, Ingram and Williamson will have to figure out how to play in a a cohesive manner. So far the Pelicans best units are those when both of them are off the court. This needs to change if the team wants to weather the storm until some guys start getting back on the court.
Other Notes
Herb Jones continues to be just a fantastic basketball player. He can dismantle opposing offenses by himself. Fret not, he will have his own detailed piece soon.
Dyson is coming along nicely. He is 6 for 6 on floaters to start this season. His contributions on the glass, defense, and playmaking continue to make an impact. Hopefully he can find some stability in his shot and from the free throw line soon.
The budding chemistry between Valanciunas and Matt Ryan is a beautiful thing to watch. Enjoy this super short video I made on them -