Trade Deadline Theory And Predictions

We are one month out from the NBA trade deadline, here is how I expect the Pelicans approach their transactions

Just under one month out from the February 8 NBA trade deadline, the Pelicans stand 22-15, 6th place in a competitive Western Conference. Though the Pelicans have been playing well for the past month or so, turmoil can strike any team at any time in the NBA, and so the organization must always keep one eye on the future. I am here to explore the main goals the Pelicans may have at the deadline, and how they may operate to accomplish them. The following is my read of the landscape based on the team’s cap situation and current roster.

The Luxury Tax Will Drive All Decisions

The Pelicans are currently $2,936,197 over the Luxury Tax threshold. This means they will owe an additional $4,404,296 in taxes. It also means they will miss out on the annual league tax share, which is part of the revenue sharing program. This payout can be upwards of $20 million dollars to non taxpaying teams. When the finances are combined, the Pelicans would be looking at a net loss that might approach $30 million. This is a price the franchise has never paid in it's existence, and I anticipate they will not break from tradition this year.

If you read my first piece on the subby, you’ll remember I strongly advocated for the Pelicans to duck the tax this year and not enter it until at least the 25-26 season. The piece goes into great detail about the financial crunch teams are about to face in the new CBA landscape, and why it is a competitive advantage to delay the start of the repeater clock. It’s wise for the Pelicans to stay the course with this plan barring an unexpected player becoming available at the deadline that would make the costs worth it.

One thing I want to be clear about - ducking the tax does not mean they cannot find ways to improve, or even add impact starters. The Pelicans have a few pathways to get under the tax threshold and the direction they choose will depend on player cost. Yet the tax will remain the main variable which drives decisions. Now that this baseline has been established, let’s look at what other goals the organization might seek to accomplish.

The Big Decision

Jonas Valanciunas has been constant positive force for the Pelicans over the past three seasons. After leading the league in total rebounding rate and defensive rebounding rate last year, Valanciunas is now sporting his highest true shooting percentage for his career. JV has been a force to be reckoned with on a nightly basis, and more importantly, he has been available on a nightly basis. The consistency from the center position has driven a lot of the Pelicans’ success.

It is difficult to find a true improvement from what Valanciunas is able to provide without entering all-star territory. However, the big man is now 31 and is in the final year of his contract. In the NBA, contractual timing is perhaps the single most important team building aspect when it comes to the opening and closing of windows. Uber rich owners can delay the inevitable with lavish spending, but contractual timelines come for everyone. The Pelicans have a smaller margin due to the aforementioned tax. For the team, there is perhaps not a better window to turn JV’s salary into a big man that fits their desired contractual timeline, as well as provides a boost defensively that the coaching staff so desperately seeks.

It’s no secret that the organization has coveted a defensively mobile big man that allows the Pelicans to play more of their offensively inclined players. There are three players who I think the Pelicans may end up pursuing.

1. Jarrett Allen. Allen is in what I call the “premium” tier of players when it comes to trade targets. He is a player the Pelicans can build a defensive system around. The 25 year old big man is someone the Pelicans have been publicly linked with for a while. Cleveland is in an interesting situation with their injuries, and Evan Mobley’s absence has allowed Allen and the Cavs’ offense to flourish. Cleveland is 5-2 in their past 7 games, with the 7th best offense. Allen is averaging 21 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game in that stretch.

   His improved play puts them at a bigger crossroads than they were already at. On one hand, there is growing evidence that the best version of the Cavs is a single big orientation. This would mean a departure from the twin tower configuration, as well as a commitment to Mobley as a full time center. I don’t know if the Cavs are ready organizationally for either of those things, though the dreaded contractual timeline will force their hand soon. They are a team barely over the tax line at the moment, and can easily duck under with a few choice moves. But Donovan Mitchell’s future is unclear and Mobley will certainly be due a big extension this summer. For the Cavs, the return on Allen may never be higher than this deadline.

   There probably isn’t a better big to ease the transition for Mobley than Jonas Valanciunas. There is familiarity with Bickerstaff and JV, and the move would be a low stakes, low commitment look at something in-between the current setup and the future. From the Pelicans, the trade construction that makes the most sense is JV + Dyson, and whatever draft capital is needed to bridge the gap. I don’t suspect it would be a pick heavy trade. Nevertheless, this trade would hinge on Koby Altman’s appetite for breaking apart what is a good thing right now.

2. Wendell Carter, Jr. WCJ is what I like to call the compromise. The esteemed

   Marc Stein
   reported recently that Carter, Jr. is a name to watch this February, and I agree. The Magic are a young and ascending team finding their footing and WCJ has been in and out of the lineup for them since they acquired him. Where his descending contract is a massive bargain, his availability over the years leaves a lot to be desired. WCJ has surpassed 60 games played only once in his career, and has already missed 23 of the 36 games his team has played this season.

   On paper, Carter, Jr’s playstyle is a solid fit with the Pelicans. He can do a bit of everything on the court and his mobility allows them to play the aggressive style of defense the staff desires. But can the Pelicans triple down on an injury prone big man rotation? Neither Zion Williamson nor Larry Nance, Jr. have been pillars of health. Much like a theoretical Robert Williams trade I pitched earlier this year, I think this move only makes sense if Valanciunas remains on the roster. Upgrading Larry to Super Larry is something I can get behind.

   It’s unclear what the Pelicans would make available to make this deal happen - would the Magic accept a pick centric deal with salary? It’s hard to imagine they covet Dyson with Anthony Black on the roster. It may just have to be a three team construction. The one thing I worry about is making a move on a guy like Carter, Jr. and spending an asset that Cleveland would want should Jarrett Allen become available in July. This is a dance the Pelicans might have to do this deadline.

3. Onyeka Okongwu. Double O is the wild card. I don’t think this is a particularly likely trade for either side, but Atlanta is reportedly shopping anyone on their roster outside of Trae Young (said noises), and Jalen Johnson. Okongwu just signed a 4 year extension this past summer, and for the Pelicans I think this is just a year too long. Nevertheless, Atlanta has a massive trade exception generated from the John Collins trade which would help overcome any salary hurdles.

The Small Decisions

• Kira Lewis will be a cap casualty this deadline. His $5.7M contract will have a small enough amount remaining that the Pelicans could attach enough cash to pay out the remainder of his salary. The team also has two tradeable second round picks if they need to use. Ideally, the team is able to put Kira in a bigger deal and aggregate salaries together, however, this is not necessary to accomplish the goal of ducking the tax. There are a few teams, like Washington, Brooklyn, Portland, and the aforementioned Atlanta Hawks, that carry trade exceptions large enough to fit him.

  
  If the Pelicans are able to create a situation where Kira’s salary is off the books with effectively nothing returning, they will be in a position to outbid many contending teams in the buyout market. Now I am under no illusions that coveted vets will choose New Orleans over a chance at a ring, but you never know. I am keeping eye on Gordon Hayward - a James Borrego familiar, and player that David Griffin reportedly recruited towards Cleveland prior to LeBron joining. The other player I’d be interested in is Doug McDermott. Anything to get more shooting on the roster.

• I can see the Pelicans having a small secondary goal of creating play time opportunities for Dyson Daniels and Jordan Hawkins, provided those players are not traded first. Both these players provide elite playoff scalable skills that some of the players ahead of them do not. Finding a way to get them in meaningful situations may pay off down the line. This may mean finding a new home for Naji Marshall or Jose Alvarado, or both. Marshall in particular is a pending free agent.

  
  There probably exists a world where the Pelicans choose to pay Marshall a modest amount this summer because they have no small tradeable salary - but if there is any value via trade, the team should pursue it. The team does not have many tradeable second round picks. These picks will be super important in replenishing cost controlled talent as the roster gets more expensive. Don’t forget, the new CBA allows for a 2nd round pick exception.

Random Thoughts

My personal wish list consists of a Jarrett Allen trade and a subsequent Kira Lewis salary dump. A trade construction that features JV and Dyson reduces the Pelicans’ salary by $1.2 million while opening up a roster spot. Moving Kira entirely would bring the Pelicans significantly under the tax and leave 3 roster spots open. The Pelicans can pursue buyout candidates, or if they strike out, they can simply convert Matt Ryan and JRE. Maybe there is a Jarrett Allen construction that sends out Kira as well and brings in a small salary like Sam Merrill to manage the roster spots. Either way, Allen is my favorite target.

JV has been an excellent security blanket and I am scared to let go of that kind of reliability. Allen brings much of the same consistency night in and night out and checks all the boxes as a personality fit. Don’t get me wrong, I’d be intrigued by WCJ and his potential, but the injury history scares me. At the end of the day, I really do think Cleveland is the limiting factor. If they are not moving from Allen this deadline, I think I’d personally want to wait it out rather than settling for WCJ if the asset cost will be similar. Again - JV is a good player! I am fine riding it out with the current configuration.

I do think they should make a small consolidation move at the back end of their roster. I think a team that has “11 playable” guys is actually a team where the first 8 or 9 are not good enough. I think the Pelicans have a solid 7 with the starters and Larry, and Dyson is a good 8th. There just needs to be some movement to actually cement him as the 8th. Or simply the acquisition of someone better. I don’t think a quiet deadline is a bad outcome if they accomplish the small goals of finding minutes for young players, replenishing seconds, and of course ducking the tax.

Find Kira a new home, add a player or two via buyout, and sign Matt Ryan. It’s a solid deadline.