The Rim And Three Equation

Threes are important. Rim Attempts feed families.

The start of the NBA season has sparked passionate discussion around the direction the game is headed in. The Boston Celtics won last year’s title decisively, pushing the boundaries of the number of threes a team should attempt. This year they have doubled down and pushed the benchmark further. The league leading Celtics are attempting 51.2 threes per game, over seven more threes per game than the number two Charlotte Hornets. Crucially the focus on threes ignores a larger league wide trend - a collective shift towards more rim and threes. Threes are but one variable in the equation - a variable that the Pelicans find themselves currently ranked 29th in attempts. It’s the rim component, which is often forgotten, in which the Pelicans are getting killed in. This results in the Pelicans sporting the LARGEST negative differential between their own rim and three rate and their opponents. Without a correction on both ends that accounts for the game’s most efficient shots, the Pelicans will get wiped out by the mathematical tsunami hitting the league.

The Numbers

The Pelicans have a 64.5% rim and three frequency - this is good for 28th in the league. On the flipside, the Pelicans are allowing opponents to generate a 79.1% rim and three rate, which is 30th in the league. The difference between these two numbers appears on the chart above as -14.6%. The 29th ranked (and struggling) Knicks are almost as close to even as they are to the Pelicans. The Pelicans have not played a single game yet where they have won the shot profile battle.

Last year - the league leading Boston Celtics held a 73.6% rim and three rate on offense. That should put into context how porous the Pelicans defense has been to allow a 79.1% rate. Opponents are turning into a supercharged version of the Celtics every time they suit up against the Pelicans. This is the direct reason the Pelicans are the worst defense in the league.

Root Causes: Offense

With the Pelicans missing four to six of their best seven players at any given time, it should be no surprise that the shot profile as not been optimal. Dejounte Murray was 10th last in year three point field goals assisted. CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy combined for over 16 threes per game last year and have been sidelined. The decline in efficiency was to be expected. Yet I don’t believe all of the offensive woes can be attributed to injuries only.

Last year the Pelicans were 21st in rim and three rate, despite a mostly healthy year from the group. This year the Pelicans are 3rd in the league in mid-range frequency, and 2nd in the amount of long twos taken - only behind the Kings (more on that in a second). Moreover, the Pelicans are relying on the mid-range more than any other category. They have taken 271 mid-range shots, per Cleaning The Glass, when compared to 270 threes and just 224 rim attempts. In fact, in every single year of Willie Green’s tenure, the Pelicans have taken more mid-range attempts than rim attempts. This is a sharp departure from the shot profile of the Stan Van Gundy team, which was FIRST in rim frequency, 23rd in mid-range frequency, and 11th overall in rim and three rate.

Some of this falls on the players. Both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram have seen a year over year decline in rim attempts under Willie Green. For Zion, this could be a direct function of his conditioning and injuries - which seem to have compromised his elite level burst. For Ingram, the situation is less clear. The past three years Ingram has hovered around a 59% mid-range attempt rate. This year, to his credit, it’s come down to 48% - which is still 94th percentile in the league. The extra attempts have not gone towards trips to the rim and free throw line, however. Ingram is at career low rates in both. They have gone towards an uptick in threes -which are a career high for him.

This is not just a star player issue though. Every single Pelicans rotation player has seen their career low in rim attempt frequency come under Willie Green. Drafted players Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, and Jose Alvarado (undrafted I know) have seen a sharp and consistent year over year decline. Experienced vets in Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum both saw steep declines after they joined the Pelicans. Jordan Hawkins is among the league’s worst when it comes to rim attempts - at 4th percentile this year.

Such consistent changes in profile are symptoms of larger structural issues. The Pelicans offense seems more interested in letting players get to spot they are comfortable in, rather than forcing opponents to put two on the ball, get in rotation, and generate “good” looks. Again, I don’t want to discount the impact of injuries - the Pelicans will undoubtedly improve as the year goes on. I just don’t think the improvement will come because there was a concerted effort to make change. It will be talent based.

Root Causes: Defense

It should come as no surprise that the Pelicans are getting crushed at the rim on defense as well. After two years of top 10 appearances defensively, the Pelicans sit 30th at the time of this writing. The Pelicans front office has publicly made known their desire to add rim protection to the roster - and drafted Yves Missi in that effort. It has not been nearly enough.

The Pelicans are allowing the single most opponent attempts at the rim, at an insane 41.9% frequency. For reference, league best Sacramento and Milwaukee are in the 27% range. This is a radical change from the past three years, in which the Pelicans finished top 10 each year in preventing opponents from getting rim looks.

A lot of this is personnel related - the Pelicans lost great point of attack defenders in Dyson Daniels and Naji Marshall. Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray - again, have only played one game together this season. Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado are simply too small to offer any resistance. Combine that with the learning curve Yves Missi faces positionally, you get a graphic that looks like this:

Now again, much of this has to do with injury and small sample. Yves minutes have been high turnover minutes. Not by him, but by his counterparts. This has led to poor transition defense off live ball steals. There have been multiple stretches for the Pelicans where the turnovers come in binges, and it just so happens that Missi has been on the court for them thus far. I think this will begin to normalize as guys start getting healthy again.

Similarly, I think the Pelicans “Jedi” defense will make a reappearance when their wings are healthy again. The Pelicans have done a much better job at keeping opponents off the three point line than years past, but unfortunately variance has not swung their way yet. Opponents are shooting 49.4% on wide open threes against the Pelicans. That is a preposterous number that is bound to come down over time.

Parting Thoughts

Lost in the hullaballoo of threes is the very core of the game - getting to the hoop. The Pelicans have done a poor job of prioritizing it offensively in the Willie Green era and the offense has suffered as a result. One thing I wanted to spend a small amount of time on was discussing the Sacramento Kings. I view the Kings as similarly constructed to the Pelicans. They have two high usage players in Sabonis and DeRozan who do not attempt threes at high volume. Here is how the Kings shot profile changed after the addition of DeRozan.

The Kings defense has been better, so the their net rim and three differential is not quite as poor as the Pelicans. However, I don’t think there is a clearer example of how the addition of one player can make a massive difference in a team’s shot profile. Chicago has gone from the 4th worst rim and three frequency in the league to the 3rd best. This is no accident.

While I am a believer that coaching adjustments or new coaching all together will set the Pelicans on a different path with regards to rim and three rate, the team’s shot profile will always be dependent on the roster. And to be perfectly fair, teams do not need the ideal shot profile to be effective offensively. The Kings' efficient offense, ranked 5th in the league, is achieved despite a league low rim and three frequency. They excel at converting shots at the rim and in the mid-range, ranking fourth and first respectively.

With enough talent, the only thing that matters is putting the ball in the hoop. Maybe when the Pelicans are fully healthy, they too will benefit from the incredible amount of talent on the roster. Is that enough to justify a seemingly poor process in the meantime? I guess we’ll find out.