Subscriber Mail Bag Responses
Bravo to everyone who submitted. These were awesome.
A huge thanks to everyone who participated in the first edition of the subscriber mail bag. The response was so overwhelmingly positive and these are definitely going to be a fixature moving forward. I tried my best to hit all of these, so without further ado:
Hi Shamit,
Thank you so much for your amazing coverage. I have been following the Hornets/Pels since their return to Nola from out of state. I was an avid BBS reader and stayed with you and Mason since. I really love the subbies. Great in-depth analysis. I have two quick questions:
1. Do you think Willie will receive any pressure from up in high to make sure he keeps Z involved in the offense? There were baffling moments when he was healthy last season and in this preseason that they seemed to purposely avoid him when he was in the floor.
2. Are you still planning to do the pod?
Thank you for all you do. I really appreciate it.
Highest of fives,
John
John - thanks so much for being a long time supporter! It’s been quite a journey, thanks for submitting your questions. Regrading Zion and Willie - I don’t think there’s any downward pressure here. From all accounts, the relationship between the FO and Willie is extremely productive and Willie is empowered to do the job he is paid for. I think everyone on the team universally recognizes the advantages Zion presents when involved, and on the ball. Part of the issue has been Zion’s availability, and that’s gotten in the way of fully developing an offense around him. The other part is some of the players got incredibly used to playing without him, and there are some habits to unlearn. The goal is very much to use the best players and use them well. It will be a process. As for the podcast - Mason and I just recorded! It will be back!
Love what you’ve been doing and you are always informative. Hoping to hear you more regularly on podcast this season.
Question being: with the preseason experiment of Z at the 5 does this make Larry redundant and/or do you still envision the pels using Larry in the closing lineups?
Thanks for all you do and keep it up. You do great work.
Sincerely,
David
David! Appreciate the kind words. The podcast is back! With regards to Larry and Zion at the 5 position - there are a few things to note. Zion at the 5 lineups are really Herb at the 5 lineups. Though neither player is actually great at that role, in my opinion, the idea is to get Zion space offensively while having a switch heavy defense. Trey Murphy is kind of the key to unlocking that for the Pelicans but it will be a while before they can see him. I don’t think this makes Larry redundant quite yet, because there is not a sustainable way to play this configuration for 82 games. It’s also difficult to toss away the success the Larry units had without a further look. I still anticipate Larry closing most of the games, at least until Murphy returns.
Hello Shamit, thanks again for sharing your insight and for taking the time to answer these questions. Is there anything else within reason that the Pelicans can do to reduce the constant injuries? Are there styles of play or emphasized strategies that are more prone to injury?
Best and thanks again,
Tola
Thanks for the question Tola. I am optimistic that Pelicans having in-house physical therapists will change the outlook on injuries moving forward. I don’t think procedurally there is anything that can be done to avoid them that they aren’t already doing. The key for them has always been being able to return from them. Having a dedicated physical therapist with the team full-time should go a long way in both prevention and return. That is the hope! I am sure the Smoothie King Center can always use more sage.
Hi Shamit,
I know you've addressed the potential salary cap crisis that could face the team when they negotiate Trey's extension. Obviously, another potential obstacle is BI's contract expiring. As of right now, do you believe BI will re-sign, and if so, when? What is the best path forward if he decides to become a free agent? Will the team have to make other moves to accomodate BI and Trey's rising salaries? And, just because I'm not super familiar with this stuff, which decision will come first?
Huge fan of your work and how deeply you think about the decisions the front office and coaching staff make. Keep it up!
Thanks,
Adam
Thanks for your question, Adam! The Pelicans certainly have a few big decisions coming up that they will have to navigate. If I had to bet today, before the season starts, Ingram signs a max extension next summer at the 30% rate. Likewise, Murphy will receive an extension that should fall between 20-23% of the salary cap. Both of these deals should be completed next summer and will kick in during the 2025-26 season. If the NBA gets what they are looking for in the new TV deal, both their contracts should age pretty well. It gets dicey if Ingram qualifies of All-NBA and becomes eligible for the 35% rate, which I do not recommend the Pelicans give him unless he legitimizes himself as a clear top 12 player type. Because these deals will kick in a few seasons from now, the Pelicans will have time to manage their finances figure out a way under the tax. They will likely have to move from CJ and find cheaper options at the center spot. I do worry it will cost them assets manage their books, but time will tell.
Hey,
If JV does not look like a good fit to start the season, do you think the pelicans will regret not trading him sooner?
Because if he doesn’t it is possible they may need to trade more assets to get off him.
Thanks,
Mark
Thanks for your question, Mark. I don’t think JV’s value is linked to his play. Teams should view him as a useful expiring, nothing more, nothing less. I don’t think there will be regret on the Pelicans front due to that, mainly because movement is dependent on other teams. When JV moves, it won’t be because the receiving team sees a long term future in him, it will be because the assets attached to him are what they want in addition to salary flexibility. I don’t think it will require more assets from the Pelicans if he plays poorly.
After Trey gets healthy, is there an argument for moving CJ to the bench? JV feels like he needs to be in the starting line-up for many matchups, you're relying on Herb to go one-on-one with other team's primary scorers, and Trey brings high-level size and shooting. Once you ask Zion and BI to be your primary ballhandlers, it feels like the unique skillset CJ has may be best suited for bench sparkplug.
Great question, Eric. My honest opinion is that once Trey gets healthy, it is Herb who should move to the bench. I understand the need for point of attack defense, but I feel a great deal more confident in the Pels ability to defend if they are scoring well. Surrounding Zion and BI with volume three point shooting is, in my opinion, the best path forward. It is for this reason they should find a center Willie Green trusts. The Pelicans will still be able to close small with Herb and Larry in the meantime, and be able to defend when it is required. That being said, benching Herb makes Dyson a little more difficult to fit in so I can’t imagine them doing this anytime soon. For lack of other options, I would support a jumbo lineup to start featuring Trey and Herb with BI and Zion.
Pretty simple - Can we survive in the modern NBA with 3 really slow starters for their positions - JV (slowest player in league?), CJ (slowest backcourt player?) & BI, maybe faster than a handful of 3-pt wing specialists but in a different league from the Thompson twins & most top 2-way wings?
One point - did the Pels look (& play?) their best last Dec with BI out & Zion & LBJ & 3 quick wings - like a modern NBA team? Is it Griff who doesn't get it or what am I missing
Thanks for the question, Myron. I suppose this depends on your definition of “survive”. I would argue finishing with a winning season is in fact “surviving”. Do I expect them to be contenders? Probably not. But to me, that has more to do with the skill level and fit on the team, rather than any inherent slowness. That being said, an area I think the Pelicans would do well to address is speed in terms of decision making. I do think CJ and BI tend to get stuck in a dribble pattern and don’t read the floor quick enough. I also think with regards to JV, it is only matter of time until they make a move for a more mobile player defensively.
How do you think they will stagger Zion/BI/CJ minutes to start the regular season?
My guy Retro Pels! Thanks for the question! I suspect they will tether BI and JV together, while CJ and Zion get run with Larry. This allows both of the stars to get adequate time on ball, running their own units. The BI units should feature a more pick and roll, and methodical oriented offense, while the Zion units should be a lot of pace and space.
My question:
It seems they want to use Zion as a screen and roll man as well, and I like the idea because that would be better for his health than going downhill every time. While playing him off-ball requires three or four floor spacers, the bigs the Pels have been rumored to be interested in are mostly non-shooters(Capela and Allen, Stew might be an exception). Although it was a very small sample, preseason showed our rebounding would be beyond questionable without an actual big. It makes me want a shooting big on the pels but they seem to have little interest.
Any intel on FO’s thoughts on shooting big?
Based on my conversations with various people in the organization, here is an approximation of how they view the big man situation. Firstly, they have a keen understanding that in order to get through the West, they have to get through Jokic. That is likely going to require a type of big man who can not only start games, but close them while Jokic is on the floor. Secondly, if they were to pursue someone like a Jarrett Allen ( who they are indeed fond of per multiple reports), they have to balance the spacing issues a big man like him will bring. Jonas can generate offense from various areas of the court. Having a roll man heavy, play finisher changes the spacing.
It also creates issues and reduced value for players like Herb and Dyson if they are unable to figure out their jump shots. Now one might think a convenient solution is to include one of those players in the deal. The flip side of this is that the staff might finally feel comfortable enough to start Trey Murphy if they are confident with the defense a rim protector might provide. Nevertheless, the Pelicans are trying to figure out if that is an archetype of player they really need, or if they should invest in a player that will help run bigs off the court. They are hoping to gather more data this year before the deadline.
Hi Shamit,
What are your thoughts on how the Pelicans should approach the center position? There appears to be a decent amount of chatter over the last few months that Griff is targeting an upgrade.
Assuming the top 8 are healthy, Larry will get about 18-22 minutes at the 5 and Zion will get another 8-10. On the low end that leaves about 22 minutes a night for a starting center. Would you continue to spend assets at the 5 for an "upgrade", if so who are you targeting or would you rather keep the draft capital and cap space and spend it elsewhere?
Best,
Wyatt
Hey Wyatt! Thanks for taking the time to submit a question. The center position appears to be a popular topic among the subscribers. I went into the theory of that position a bit in the question above. So let me leave you with this - if it were up to me, and me only, I would attempt to create a team that is unguardable. I would want to create extreme matchup problems for opponents and have them try to match the Pelicans, rather than vice versa. I’m not sure there is a defender out there that can credibly defend Jokic, so building for that specific task is not my cup of tea. I would rather create a scenario that makes Zion a nightmare to game plan for. To accomplish this, they need shooting, shooting, and more shooting. Especially shooters with size. I don’t think JV and Larry are long term solutions to any real problem, so I would love to invest the assets you speak of into big shooters.
Do you think that the Pelicans' ownership exhibits perhaps too much patience in developing the franchise? The NBA is a place where fortunes - or at least titles - can be made quickly with the right combination of location, effort, and players; while our patient method to acquire young talent and then let it grow is a traditional plan do you think a different tack on "getting good quickly" is something our ownership has overlooked? Or: could we be in a different place with different ownership???
Hey James, thanks for the question. To be brutally honest, until Gayle Benson received the team, I don’t think the Pelicans ownership did anything more than the bare minimum regarding the team. It wasn’t a matter of patience, I don’t think they cared enough to even think of it in those terms. With regards to Ms. Benson, she has not been a steward of the franchise all that long but has seen the changing of two head coaches, and one management group. I don’t think too patient is the right characterization. I genuinely believe they have empowered David Griffin and company to do what is necessary short of being a deep luxury tax team - which the situation has not warranted.
Ownership is the biggest competitive advantage in the NBA, and while I don’ think the Pelicans have any kind of advantage here, I think they have lifted themselves out of the bottom. Now, would having an owner that was more aggressive about spending change how the Pelicans operate? Absolutely. Those conversations about Durant and Lillard look much different with a more aggressive owner.
What do you think is the top priority for the organization? Is it winning a championship, being a winning team (0.500+), making the playoffs, maximizing profit, ticket sales or something else? Yes, these might align at times, but when they conflict, what do you think is the organization's top priority?
Hey Josh, thanks for writing in! I think for the Pelicans’ front office, the priority remains winning. My conversations with them leave me with no doubt that they want to be the very best. Are they realistic about their roster? Sure. I think there are simultaneous goals at play. There needs to be sustained improvement towards a threshold at which they can decide if it is time to go all in or not.
As far as ownership goes, I don’t think they are that aggressive about becoming a championship organization. I think they would be very happy if this was a consistent playoff team with consistent playoff revenue.
If the team is healthy and they don't make the playoffs, does Willie Green get fired?
I appreciate the multiple questions, Brian. I hope it is okay I picked what I found to be the most fascinating one. While I do think jobs are on the line if the Pelicans do not make the playoffs, I think it is more so on the management side. The question becomes, who replaces them? If Trajan Langdon or Bryson Graham are next in charge, Willie Green should be safe. If there is an external hire, it is only a matter of time before they want to select their own coach.
First of all I appreciate the pro bono effort and passion. Does technology exist through pixel based event detection to track the movement of players on court to determine requirements for lineup substitutions in order to prevent injury. Mainly thinking about advancements in sports science tech for preventative health
Hey Noah, thanks for your submission. This is a great question. The NBA has some fascinating player tracking technology in terms of cameras, and they generate a lot of spatial data. Typically this has been used for more basketball oriented analytics, but I am curious if there is room for innovation on the health side regarding this. There would have to be an enormous amount of data generated to build something predictive, but it would be fascinating nonetheless.
Even still, the NBA has a ton of wearable tech and other tools they use to measure health outcomes for the athletes. Years ago I was told how they are able to track at which minute a player’s turnovers are about to increase due to fatigue, or their general effectiveness is about to decrease. A lot of health data is used and compared against a baseline to dictate practice intensity and even game availability. This is where all the load management stuff comes from.
What is your absolute bottom of the barrel, everything that could go wrong goes wrong, dogshit, worst possible outcome for this upcoming season?
(normally I'm an optimist but I'm fascinated with the floor and ceiling of the franchise for the next 5 years)
Chris my guy! Great to hear from you. I shudder to think of a season that goes THAT poorly, but to indulge you - I am going to take this in a slightly different direction. I think the WORST case scenario is the Pelicans struggling to be a good team while being largely healthy. I am talking 33 win type season with a ton of games played from their best guys. Not bad enough to have good lottery odds, not good enough to warrant any kind of buying moves at the deadline. This would almost ensure the Pelicans spend assets to dive under the tax at the deadline and have no clear pathway to improvement outside a major roster overhaul. The potential Scoot trade from this past summer would loom large as the road not traveled should the season play out like this.
Here is my question? Do the Pels have a plan to reduce turnovers in the regular season. Big problem in preseason.
Thanks for the question, Mike. Do they have a plan? I think so. It involves keeping the ball in the hands of their best players. Will it work? Better on some nights than others. I think once Trey Murphy is back, there will be more space to operate and less turnovers.
Hey Shamit,
You've been a longtime proponent of starting Trey in the past. Assuming he at least gets back to where he left off during this season, do you see a willingness from the team to start him? If so, who is the odd man out? CJ? Do you see whoever that is accepting that role?
If you're taking multiple questions: what is your take on this fanbase regularly trying to find a trade that ships JV out? I think he is a serviceable center for this team, and unless a player like Jarrett Allen becomes available, I don't see the positive in sending him out, especially with what's out there. Sure, he isn't the greatest defender, but even in his advanced stats (DRTG, DWS) he's sorta just "average." Rebounding-wise, he's pretty good. (I'm not the best at finding advanced stats so please correct me if I'm wrong.
Been a long-time consumer of your work, so I really appreciate what you do in this fanbase.
Cheers,
Austin
Thanks for the question, Austin! I think once Trey comes back, there will be a buffering period before they entertain a lineup change. If things are going well, we likely don’t see one at all. If things are going poorly, then it will probably come later than we all want. I don’t think they have the capacity to bench the 3rd highest paid player on the team so it will be Herb who takes a seat.
Regarding JV, I’ve touched on the Allen stuff above. However, while I am a fan of the big fella, his fit with Zion is less than ideal, and his fit into the style of system Willie Green wants to play is non existent. The Pelicans will eventually make a move at that position and he will be an unfortunate casualty.
When looking at the West playoff teams which teams do you feel we match up beat with? Who do you feel we match up worst with?
Hey David, thanks for the question. Regarding the Pelicans and their matchups, they will suffer against teams larger than them and teams that can overwhelm them from the three point lines. It’s hard to tell what that looks like in the West at the moment, because I do no believe it to be a very strong conference. I will say that I am probably most afraid of the Wolves and Jazz for their size and the Nuggets because of their overall skill. Memphis would have been a team up there if Adams was healthy. I think there are too many question marks surrounding other teams that prevent me from coming up with sheer matchup difficulty.
How important is this season for the Pelicans viability in New Orleans?
Love the work Shamit!
Thanks so much, Hunter! This is a great question. The lease with the Smoothie King Center is up for renewal at the end of the year. I strongly believe the type of season the Pelicans have will dictate the type of money invested in the SKC or a new Arena entirely. I don’t want to go too far and say this season alone will dictate the future, but it is certainly important in determining the road the organization and the city/state go down. I don’t think there is any relocation danger, if that is the concern. Not prior to expansion at the very least.
Love the subby!
Question: How long do you think the front office will keep their asset powder dry? We've seen the value of the picks decay over time. Griff’s after season remarks he mentioned two areas the Pelicans needed to improve: rim protection and shooting but nothing has been done to address those areas.
Thanks Benjamin! I think the front office is keenly aware of sitting on the pot too long. Their intention very much is to find the right piece to load the proverbial gun for. I can’t put a timeline on it at the moment, but realistically, they do not have much time with this core left if it doesn’t start producing. I strongly suspect they will swing at the deadline, perhaps not for the fences, but for a long term starter at the center position.
Thank you all for the questions! I apologize to those who had multiple questions that I did not get to. I will do this again in the future and you all will have more opportunities to ask away.