Stars Are Supposed To Make Things Easier

The wrong stars create more problems than they solve

The Pelicans’ front office deserves a lot of credit. They have slowly built a team that is incredibly versatile and talented. A lot of this construction has occurred via the draft. Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, and now Jordan Hawkins are all valuable pieces drafted to amplify the stars they are around. There is a spectrum of skillsets covered by that group, and the Pelicans have layered in the rest with savvy vets - Jonas, Larry, and CJ, as well as nifty two-way signings such as Jose, Naji, and now Matt Ryan. The Pelicans have assembled an extremely deep team without touching free agency in any real sense. It’s a good roster, missing only a true rim protector.

Despite a rather complete roster, why does it feel like the Pelicans are unable to play with a commensurate amount of success on the court? The answer rests with their star players. Normally the job of a star is to make everything easier. LeBron, Jokic, Steph, Giannis - these guys have elevated countless players on their rosters time and time again. Top tier stars consistently engender a “more than a sum of your parts” environment.

Stars are a forgiving cushion in so many ways. Role players having a bad night? Stars can take over and close the game out. They can elevate offenses by themselves - think about it. When there are roughly 100 scoring opportunities in a game, a star can control upwards 40 to 50 of them by themselves in extreme cases. The right stars can be relied on to make the correct decisions over and over again. Some stars are so good defensively, that they can impact the game in a similar way on that end as well. When Austin Reaves gets beat, it’s comforting knowing Anthony Davis is providing support behind him.

Beyond the court, stars allow you a large margin of error when managing the cap sheet. Teams with stars capped out at their respective max rates can afford to overpay or simply misjudge on players up and down the roster. It’s a significant advantage in team building knowing a guy like Zion is not going to make more than 25% of the salary cap for years. Guys like Steph cap out at 35% and will not earn a dime more. Sure, having ownership willing to foot whatever bill comes to the table is a necessary component of championship pursuits, yet even those teams take advantage of the pay ceiling the CBA places upon the stars.

The wrong stars can impact the team and organization in all the same ways. An inefficient star just has to be given shots and possessions. Those shots might come at the expense of more efficient players. The same way the league’s best can control 40-50 possessions, low end stars can impact that many possessions while being an order of magnitude less effective.

A guy who shoots 10-25, gets to the line 6 times and turns it over 5 times might give you 28 points on 33 used possessions. The 28 is gaudy, but the team has now spent a third of their usable possessions scoring at 0.84 points per possession. In the remaining 67 possessions of a 100 possession game, the rest of the team would have to score at the rate of 1.29 ppp to reach a league average offensive outing of 114 points per 100 possessions. It is simply unreasonable to ask a supporting cast to score at historically efficient rates to make up for their star. It should be the other way around.

Likewise, that star occupying 25-35% of the salary cap creates roster issues. Teams have to spend assets to juggle salary around them, but also acquire players that cover up their weaknesses. This problem is exacerbated when teams have multiple ill-fitting stars. This is where the Pelicans find themselves with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson.

Look, I’ve covered how the lack of leadership from the duo has steadily dwindled the Pelicans’ asset pile and flexibility. The duo is now entering a territory where results are paramount, and the fit on the court is also questionable. How good can a team realistically be when their two best players struggle to consistently defend, are not effective from the three point line, are inconsistent rebounders, and can’t stay on the court?

Their limitations taxes the rest of the roster physically and strategically. Their inability to stay on the court resulted in McCollum and Nance, Jr. fighting injuries to keep pushing for the post season, which ended up requiring procedures. Their inability to defend and shoot puts the coaching staff in the awkward position of needing Herb Jones out there but also needing him to take threes - and that’s a win for the defense. It forces Jonas Valanciunas to space out to the corner and away from the rim, where he is a monster rebounder. For those keeping track at home, JV’s OREB rate this season is 7.8% - a staggering career low and down from 13% last season.

Now don’t get me wrong, role players are less valuable than stars, and normally the calculus around them is that they need to fit in or risk being moved. At some level this is completely true - a team should be built to accent the stars, and it’s probably a stretch for me to use JV as an example of a guy being compromised. But what if the stars aren’t good enough to warrant such decisions on guys like Herb Jones? At what point does the team say enough assets have been spent trying to patch the holes around the star duo?

I don’t know what that threshold is for the organization, but in my opinion, the Pelicans are at it. Ingram is extension eligible this summer at the 30% max rate, which will take his deal to the neighborhood of 5 years, $250 million. The CBA has changed and that will undoubtedly play a role in how the Pelicans operate moving forward. But the window is small. There is significant financial advantage to Zion locked in at the 25% rate, Trey Murphy not due for a raise until 25-26, Jordan Hawkins and Dyson on rookie scale deals, and Herb under the mid level rate. The Pelicans should take advantage of this by bringing in a guy that amplifies their collection of cost controlled talent. A guy that allows not only the Herb Jones’ of the roster to thrive, but to also reciprocate the amplification in a mutually symbiotic relationship.

The Pelicans can afford to be aggressive in the short term if they choose to, they just have to decide if the Ingram and Williamson pairing is one they want to move forward with. The clock is ticking.