In The N.O. 2024 Draft Official Prediction
With the 21st pick, the Pelicans will select...
Welcome esteemed readers of the subby. It is officially draft day, and that means I am here to give you my thoughts and predictions which will expire rapidly. Every year I try to converse with various league sources to get a real idea of the draft might play out and where the Pelicans may stand. At pick 21, things are an order of magnitude more difficult to nail down than pick 8 or even 14. Any number of trades may change the draft order, and there exists a far greater chance of one team drafting someone remarkably high. Nevertheless, here is what I am hearing.
The Pelicans Love Bigs
Christian Clark has reported on this recently but the Pelicans really do like the bigs in this class. From Donovan Clingan, to Zach Edey, a lot of people in the front office are enamored by adding size to the team. Those two players do not project to fall to 21, however. The most commonly mocked player in the Pelicans pick range is Baylor’s Yves Missi. Missi is an incredible athlete, though relatively new to the sport of basketball. As Christian has reported, Missi has picked up fans in the Pelicans front office.
Here are who some of the major mock drafts have the Pelicans selecting.
ESPN - Yves Missi
Athletic - Yves Missi
Bleacher Report - Yves Missi
It sure seems like everyone has received the same intel regarding the Pelicans situation. So why is it that I am hearing there is a good shot Missi goes higher than the Pelicans are able to select? What happens if he is not on the board?
Options at 21
It is not unusual for teams at 21 to explore trade back situations. If the draft talent available in that range is viewed as relatively flat, then trading back to secure a lower cap hit and some additional assets makes a lot of sense. The Knicks, despite their incredible Mikal Bridges trade, still hold picks 24, 25, and 38 in this year’s draft. I asked one league source what they thought about a hypothetical move where the Pelicans send 21 for one of those first round picks and 38, and they agreed it seemed to be good value. If the Pelicans have the ability to trade back and select a shooter like Baylor Scheierman and pick up UCLA center Adem Bona at 38 - that is certainly an attractive proposition.
These types of deals are by nature difficult to predict, and often rely on the board shaking out a particular way. There remains a possibility of no movement at all at 21 and the Pelicans simply selecting from the top of their list. Could that simply be the Creighton swingman Baylor Scheierman?
My official prediction here is that the Pelicans will select USC guard Isaiah Collier at 21. Collier is too good of value to pass up at 21 and has frequently been rated as a top 10 pick by scouts. Collier’s super power is his downhill penetration, with an absurd free throw rate. He has actual court vision, though at times struggled with turnover issues. The shooting projection is poor and will be the swing skill that will determine his career. I believe in Collier though. He is 5th on my personal big board. There are very few creation bets in this draft, and Collier is one of them.
A Brief Note on Trades
It is entirely possible that by the time Adam Silver is at the podium reading the selection at 21, the Pelicans have traded out of the draft. There are a number of different trade scenarios at play. Don’t be surprised if something gets done today.