If I Had To Do It

I'm not saying I would - but if I absolutely had to...

Superstar trade constructions follow a relatively consistent formula. The team with the superstar seeks a combination of young players with upside, draft capital, and salary flexibility in return. Now the priorities adjust here depending on where the selling team is at in their rebuild. For example - when Indiana traded Paul George, it merely sought the return of two young veteran types that both ended up becoming All-Star players in their own right. Teams that want to maintain a certain compete level will sacrifice on younger talent or draft capital if it means steady production. If I had to make such a move for the Pelicans, I would do it this coming trade deadline. February 8, 2024 is a date that would be circled on my calendar, just under two months from today.

It has been rare a occurrence for teams to move on from a star prior to the star requesting out. There have only been a handful of preemptive moves in recent history and they have all been MESSY. When the Clippers moved Blake Griffin, they were lambasted for blindsiding the franchise superstar they had just signed to an extension months ago. The fallout of the move reverberated across the organization. Players, coaches, and fans were awestruck. No one could have seen this coming.

So once again, if I really had to, here is how I would do it.

Step 0: Establish Goals

My personal goals when trading him would be the following:

• Acquire strong young talent, with at least one player with all-star upside. The goal isn’t to trigger a reset, it is to buy time. If the Pelicans can secure some young talent that lines up with Trey Murphy’s contractual timeline, I think they can be competitive with the salary flexibility they will create.

• Create Salary Flexibility. This team is maybe looking at 5-8 key contributors that earn under the mid-level exception in the post trade universe. They need to leverage the new found salary flexibility to pursue other all-star level talent. Or at the least, talent that is “accretive to winning” that might be a bit pricey salary wise.

• Try to accumulate future draft capital. The Pelicans’ current collection of picks are rapidly approaching their expiration date. It would be nice to restock the war chest a little, though this would be my lowest priority in the move.

• Stay playoff competitive. This team can’t handle another rebuild. The upward trajectory is a must. Naturally by trading him, the strength of the team in terms of floor and ceiling diminishes significantly. However, the Pelicans need to do what they can to get into the playoffs this year despite the transaction. Buy yourself time with a few successful seasons for the young talent to grow, but also for the next star to hit the market. Team building options are significantly more diverse now that he is no longer an challenge to build around.

Step 1: Keep Him Healthy and Win Games

Health and success go hand in hand. The Pelicans have assembled a talented roster, and it is not unreasonable to say they will be a good team heading into the trade deadline if they stay healthy. Each game they win grows their bargaining power. It is always better to negotiate from a place of strength, rather than desperation. A world where he gets injured and the Pelicans limp across the trade deadline is a world where they have to either accept a deal that is pennies on the dollar, or a world where they remain in a state of transaction paralysis and have to spend assets to get under tax line.

Here is where it gets tough. By February 8, the Pelicans will be 51 games into the season. What if they are something like 30-21 at that time? Do they really have the stomach to rock the boat if they have the inside track to a home court playoff appearance? After years of chasing this very outcome, it would be extremely contradictory to dismantle the team that is finally on it’s way to achieving it’s most successful season in over a decade and a half. Not only would the criticism be LOUD, a move such as this could risk disrupting the locker room. Retreat after much desired progress would be a slap in the faces for the coaches and players.

I think it is fair to acknowledge that such a move can end in disaster. Yet such a move is never made in a vacuum. It is a culmination of years of data, both on the court and off it. The Pelicans’ Gatsbyian pursuit of greatness with him can similarly lead them to ruin. Jay Gatsby exhausted his meticulously accumulated fortune to rekindle a relationship with Daisy. The Pelicans have similarly depleted their once vast asset pile to accommodate the various flaws he presents. In both situations, obsessive yearning for an idealized outcome fuels decision making. Gatsby romanticizes Daisy as unattainable symbol of perfection, overlooking her many flaws. Similarly, the Pelicans have been hypnotized by the potential of an all league caliber player.

Both cases share a fundamental incompatibility. Gatsby’s unwavering pursuit ultimately leads to tragedy. It is his inability to let go of the past and accept the reality of Daisy’s choices results in his demise. For the Pelicans, it is not the the past that transfixes them, but a vision a competitive future. Yet the Pelicans have a chance to do what Gatsby could not - they can abandon their pursuit of Daisy.

Step 2: Identify Trade Candidates

When the Pelicans were aggressively pursuing Scoot Henderson this past summer, they presumably had conversations with various teams that held high draft picks. In those conversations, the Pelicans probably walked away with a good idea of what the trade value was like for their stars. I believe the Pelicans when they say they made no formal offers, nor indicated if either of their two main guys would be available. However, I think they got a general idea of which teams would want them and the relative value. If he is healthy and producing, his value is only going to be higher than what it was in the summer. It’s time to revisit some of those targets.

Let’s examine which teams ended up with top 5 picks in this past year’s draft.

1. San Antonio

2. Charlotte

3. Portland

4. Houston

5. Detroit

Right off the bat, I want to cross off San Antonio and Portland as destinations. I do not believe those teams would be significantly motivated to make a massive win-now play that would cost them young players and assets. Likewise, I do not believe Charlotte has the requisite desire to come to the table due to the inevitable cost. If they did, a deal likely would have taken place in the summer. This leaves us Houston and Detroit.

From a competitive standpoint, these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum. At the time of this writing, the Rockets are 10-9, holding the 8th seed in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 2-20 and have lost 19 straight games. Both teams made splashy coaching hires this past summer and expressed desires to be competitive. Where the Rockets spent their considerable cap space on tough veterans Dillon Brooks, and Fred Van Vleet, the Pistons spent their cap space absorbing the contracts of Joe Harris and Monte Morris. The results could not be more different, but the desires to be competitive remain unchanged.

Both these teams have an interesting collection of young players, tradeable salary, and motivation to be good. Remember the Blake Griffin trade I talked about earlier? It was none other than the Pistons who made the splash. From the Pistons, I would specifically be targeting Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren. Jaden Ivey is out there as a nice consolation, but the priority would be to walk away with one or both of the above two. If Detroit were to offer Cade, I would move on that. Cunningham has been an inefficient player surrounded by a cacophony of bad shooting, yet the potential remains tantalizing for me. But I suspect Detroit would want to build around Cade, not move him for a different piece.

From the Rockets, the priority would be Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith. I do not believe the Rockets would entertain the notion of moving on from Sengun, and Jalen Green is simply too close to his next contract for my tastes. Having little time to make an evaluation on a relatively inefficient player is a situation I’d like to avoid. Smith fills a positional need as a large, 3 and D forward that can rebound and offer some secondary rim protection. Amen, like his twin, offers an intriguing upside bet as a creator.

Once the appropriate candidates have been identified, the folks who make the big bucks can negotiate over the draft capital and trade salary that fills the gaps. Houston is in an odd position where they owe many of their own picks to Oklahoma City, but are expected to receive picks from Brooklyn. Likewise, Detroit has conditional picks owed which they would have to untangle.

Step 3: Make Several Win-Now Moves

The Pelicans cannot afford to take a large step back. Simply moving him for young players and picks would greatly impact their push for the playoffs. After the major parameters of the trade are set, the Pelicans need to use all of their tradeable salary, and newfound tradeable salary (expand the deal!), to go get impact players. These impact players can come in the form of other all-stars, or simply rugged role players that move the needle towards winning.

Take for example the Houston deal. Let’s say the Pelicans secure Smith, Thompson, and Oladipo (salary). I would pursue Jarrett Allen with some combination of Oladipo, Valanciunas, Nance, Lewis, or Dyson. Whatever salary remains, I’d search the league far and wide for impact role players, and adults. Readers of the subby know my fascination with Dorian Finney-Smith. I’ve also spent years trying to trade for Buddy Hield and Kelly Olynyk. The Pelicans can even use their newfound salary flexibility to absorb an unwanted contract from a team looking to reduce their tax bill.

The specifics of the pursuit here is unimportant. The central idea is to obtain players who will undoubtedly help in Pelicans’ playoff push. The machine must move forward. If the deal is executed properly, the Pelicans will have bought themselves much needed contractual time as they navigate the new CBA landscape. They will also have secured the flexibility and assets to move on the next franchise changing talent that might become available. In the meantime, there would be a reliable on court product - one that might not have a championship ceiling, but makes for an entertaining team nonetheless.

This is how I would do it. I would hate every moment of it and many moments after. But this is how I would do it.