Damn The Torpedoes

Four bells, Captain Dumars, go ahead! Pelicans, full speed!

Joe Dumars has fired the opening salvo by trading the Pelicans unprotected 2026 pick and now is the time to forge ahead. Facing a mountain of backlash, it would be easy for Dumars to tread carefully moving forward. Yet this not the time to get gun shy— rather the Pelicans may have an opportunity to act aggressively to shape a core which can compete for the playoffs for the foreseeable future. Enter Walker Kessler.

The Pitch

The sell on Kessler is quite easy. Since Kessler entered the league 3 years ago, he has registered as a top 10 rim protector in all three years. Despite playing on one of the worst rosters in the league, Kessler has maintained high level defensive impact stats. Registering a +1 DPM with such poor quality of teammates is exceptional. These stats are extremely sensitive to who a player might share the court with, and the Jazz have only ever attempted to lose games over the past 3 years. I truly believe this is a potential DPOY level center forced to cover the mistakes of perimeter sieves such as Jordan Clarkson and Keyonte George.

Additionally, Kessler is an elite rebounder on both ends of the court.

Last year, the Pelicans were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in franchise history, while also trotting out a red carpet to the paint. Kessler will help the Pelicans “possession max” by securing offensive rebounds and terminating opponent attempts on the other end.

Kessler addresses an immediate team need, and potentially does so for the next 6 years (I’ll get to his contract later). At 23 years old, Kessler can elevate the Pelicans’ floor for years to come.

The Plan

There are two components to my plan. Firstly, the main idea is to secure Kessler. He is a rookie extension eligible candidate heading into his fourth year. Because Kessler will be due a large sum of money a year from now, the Pelicans need to find a way to shed a considerable amount of their own. There is one easy path to do this with the Utah Jazz— exchanging Dejounte Murray’s contract for John Collins’s expiring one.

Murray is due roughly $94 million over the next three years. He is slated to earn $30.8M next season and the final year is a player option for roughly the same amount. Collins is due $26.6M as an expiring next season. To bridge the gap between the amount owed here, the Pelicans will have to add incentive to Murray. So if there is already incentive being sent for Kessler, and dumping money requires compensation as well— why not wrap it all up into a larger trade?

Here is the trade construction I am proposing:

To Utah: Dejounte Murray, Yves Missi, Jordan Hawkins, 2030 unprotected first round pick

To New Orleans: John Collins, Walker Kessler, Cody Williams

From the Pelicans side, the price for cutting money and acquiring Kessler comes in the form of surrendering another future first round pick, their promising young center, and Jordan Hawkins. Additionally, the Pelicans will absorb Cody Williams— who Utah should be keen to dump or cut at this junction. Williams graded as one of the worst players in the league and my recommendation would be to utilize the team option on his third and fourth years to get out of his deal.

For Utah, they would be taking on the injured Dejounte Murray, and being compensated with two promising young players, and an unprotected first round pick. Utah should hope to rehab Murray’s value and attempt to flip him at a later date. This also takes Utah out of the obligation to commit a large sum of money to Kessler without a clear team direction. Murray will not hinder any plans to tank for AJ Dybantsa or Cam Boozer next season, but might be able to provide veteran guidance for the young guards already on Utah’s roster.

The peripherals are not important here. I want to be clear, the meat of this trade is Murray, Missi, and the first round pick for Kessler and Collins. The Hawkins and Williams component were just thrown in there incase either team fancied it. The edges can always be workshopped. If the Pelicans need to include Matkovic or a pick swap, that is largely inconsequential to me. The Pelicans just need to acquire Kessler and clear the runway for his extension (I would extend him a full 5 years at roughly $25M per year).

The second component of this plan is playing a little money ball. When the Pelicans won 49 games in a competitive West, they rostered eight players who registered as a plus in estimated plus minus, with another two in Dyson Daniels and Naji Marshall close behind. For contrast, last season the Pelicans only rostered six. Of those six, Williamson, Jones, Murray, and Murphy all missed significant time. This led to the Pelicans giving over 11,500 minutes to players who registered as negatives.

Building a roster that eliminates minutes to negative impact players is a surefire pathway towards wins. Health is always going to be a component here, but the Pelicans can clean up some low hanging fruit by moving on from Yves Missi and Jordan Hawkins. Both players are young, and young players often take years to provide positive impact. But the Pelicans are in a position where they don’t have to wait for this impact to come. If they can flip these players and secure Kessler and Collins, the Pelicans will be in great position with regards to their roster construction.

Let’s game this out a little. Yves Missi registered as a -3.8 player by EPM. Walker Kessler registered as a +0.6. If the Pelicans just swapped those two players, the difference would be similar to adding a +4.4 player to their roster. Players in this range last season?

• Victor Wembanyama: +4.0

• Steph Curry: +4.2

• Kyrie Irving: +4.5

• Kawhi Leonard: +4.8

The math is never that straightforward, but the impact on winning should be clear. A Pelicans’ roster that features Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Zion Williamson, Walker Kessler, Jose Alvarado, Saddiq Bey, John Collins, and Kevon Looney has a chance to feature nine players who are positives. The roster would be extremely well balanced with regards to defense, rebounding, and would still sport tremendous upside with Fears and Queen on the shelf.

Joe Dumars has the outline of a very good roster on his hands, and I think with this specific move— he would be setup for both this season and the long term. Kessler fits with the current core and with tomorrow’s players in Fears and Queen. There aren’t many players in the league who mask the Pelicans' stars flaws in the way Kessler does. And man, with Looney in tow, the Pelicans will have elite rebounding at the center position for 48 minutes.

I would happily “overpay” to secure this roster configuration. If it costs the Pelicans Missi, an unprotected first round pick, and an unprotected swap— that is a cost I am happily willing to pay if it means I have secured a top 5 rim protector long term.

By moving on Kessler, the Pelicans would be executing the inevitable conclusion of their high stakes draft gambit. They have to be good next year and this move will allow them to be. The draft trade is a sunk cost and needs to be forgotten—now is the time to be aggressive while the league is still reeling. Dumars has a chance to deliver a true playoff team, one which Pelicans fans will embrace in way no other city can. Every “bad” trade, every risk taken— they will all be forgotten the second a home playoff game tips off in the Smoothie King Center.