Christmas Mailbag Responses
Happy New Year To the Subby Gang
This holiday edition of the subscriber mailbag was chalk full of long term questions. As was the case with the previous one, I tried my best to answer these as thoroughly as possible. I hope everyone had a great holiday season and enjoy my thoughts below.
Shamit,
Love the smart Pels content. The early returns on the “stars” playing together (now that they’re finally healthy) is pretty meh according to eye test, plus/minus, and advanced stats. BI is due for a pretty big raise, as is Trey. Given ownership’s history, it seems highly unlikely that we’ll be able to keep BI, CJ, Z, and Trey at their current or upcoming contracts.
What do you think they should do, and what do you think Griff will do? There’s a pretty big decision to be made coming very soon that will really determine the long term viability of the team,
Keep up the great work!
Hey Philip, This is a questions that deserves it’s own in depth post, perhaps later in the season. For now the big picture things regarding this topic are as follows:
Brandon Ingram is extension eligible this summer, and will be on track for a 30% max deal with 4 new years. This will bring his total to just over 5 years $250 million. At this point I do not think it is likely he makes All-NBA, but if he did, that number shoots past $300 million.
Trey Murphy is also extension eligible this summer and I project a 5 year, $150 million deal for him.
Neither player’s salary kicks in until 2025-26. At at this point the cap will be significantly higher and CJ McCollum will be an expiring if he is still on the roster.
The Pelicans have wiggle room for the 2024-25 season and can avoid paying the tax all together if they wish.
With these factors in mind, my consistent position is that the Pelicans need to pick a direction between Zion and BI and move the other player. If the direction is Zion, they would be prudent to move BI as soon as possible. If the direction is BI, they need to structure the team around him in a way that gives him spacing but also provides him with enough creation help.
You think our side leaked those zion contract details, aannd if he doesn’t re-activate those 3 years this season, do you think they move him? Zion BI cj and trey can’t happen financially. My guess is Zion is out.
Hey Quinn, I feel extremely confident that no one on the Pelicans’ side leaked the Zion details. The Zion contract situation is one area I have personal experience with. It was tightly guarded by the organization, the player’s union, and pretty much everyone in between. I am not the only one over the past 2 years that made attempts to acquire it, and pretty much everyone ran into a wall. From the Pelicans side, it was important relationally that the details not get out. The Pelicans org did their job in preventing that as best they can.
But, there was a mutual understanding from every party involved that at some point the contract would get uploaded to the league’s system and someone would be able to access it. It was going to be a story regardless, all the Pels could really do is delay the inevitable. Zion, however, doesn’t need to “reactivate'‘ anything. He will lose zero dollars unless he is waived and not picked up off waivers. I simply do not see that happening.
Earlier this week you shared an incredible Reddit article which lent insights to how Coach Green is handling the Pelican lineups. I assume you are pretty much in lockstep with its content, but would like you to take the next step with and share your thoughts on how to best fulfill its recommendations with the personnel we have. Keep up the great work, Shamit!
Hey Shawn, thanks for writing in. I feel like for the better part of the past 3 seasons I have been calling for the staff to play their shooters more with their best players. I think at this point it is illogical for me to expect change from the coaches and the answer needs to come from the front office. The front office needs to furnish Green with a roster that leaves no options but to play with better spacing. I would hate for this era of Pelicans basketball to end without ever seeing Zion and BI surrounded by adequate space.
With DG and WG not seeing eye to eye will David Griffin try to save his job by "parting ways" with Willie Green soon this season to promote JB since this is a make or break season for alot of people?
Hey Silverfoxx. I am not sure there is a great deal of evidence that Willie Green and David Griffin do not see eye to eye. Nor am I sure that David Griffin’s job is in any real danger. Here are the facts that ownership sees. The Pelicans are 19-14 and have improved every year of Green’s tenure. Sure the two executives may have disagreements on philosophy in certain areas, but I am not sure there is enough friction to spur a change. I think the only way the organization moves on from Green is if the players totally tune him out or reject him. Which happened to the previous coach so I can’t say it is an impossibility here.
If you needed to construct a 9 man rotation to compete for 2 rounds of playoff wins and you’re allowed to trade 1 of the starts to facilitate that goal, what trade would you make and how would that 9 man rotation look? What minute allocations to those 9 would you assign? Thanks bruddah.
Hey Joey. This is a difficult ask if I am only allowed to move 1 starter and have to keep the rest of the roster intact. The easiest way to meet those conditions is to trade CJ for a bonafide star - which is unlikely at best. Absent the ability to do that, the Pelicans probably position themselves “best” if they move JV and Kira for Jarrett Allen. At this point, they move Trey Murphy into the starting lineup, Herb Jones to the bench. Personally, I’d give bench minutes to Naji, Matt Ryan, Herb, and Larry. I’d really want to get Hawkins and Dyson in there, but if I had to pick 9, those would be my playoff 9. Now, the Pelicans would need to sign Matt Ryan to a real contract for him to be playoff eligible, so that is a necessary first step. I would say this team is capable of winning a first round series pending a good matchup, and likely gets beat by a good bit in the second round.
What do you see Griff doing? Consolidation trades and with who? Does he dare trade Z? Do you think Willie will make it past this year if they don't make a deep run? Thanks man!
Hey Todd, thanks for submitting. There seems to be a common theme in the questions this time around and many of these questions have been covered elsewhere in this mailbag. With regards to if Griff dares to move Zion - I genuinely believe they would have done that this summer if the deal was right. I do believe they dare do it. What I don’t want them to do is to make a decision out of a place of emotion. I think front offices are prone to group think and they need to set aside feelings when decisions are THIS big, and make the best basketball move.
The team was hung over during the Vegas Lakers game weren’t they? Or too many of the players anyway
Hey Chris. This sure seems to be a popular theory among fans. I have no concrete proof of this nor do I really care to search for it. Whatever happened in Vegas, it was a disappointment and I hope they learned from it.
Hi Shamit!
First, allow me to say that I feel a little bit smarter each time I read the subby. Much appreciated! Let's go back in time for a moment and tell me what you think about something I've been mulling over:
Was Dell Demps ahead of his time as a GM? Hear me out...
First, he built an offense-first team before the Warriors took over the NBA when he put together Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson. I don't remember the exact stats, but I seem to remember that combo's offensive rating was off the charts in the few minutes they played together due to injuries.
Second, he consistently traded away 1st round picks to acquire talent. Now, we can question the guys he acquired with those picks, but two 1sts for Jrue, Buddy and a 1st for Boogie, a 1st for Mirotic, a 1st for Asik...I just think how the Pelicans got a whole bunch of 1sts when they traded Jrue to the Bucks, and if the Boogie Cousins of 2017 was being traded now, it would probably be for much more than one future 1st. Teams are willing to part with a half-decade's worth of 1sts nowadays and no one thinks anything of it.
Finally, he zigged when the rest of the league zagged by putting Boogie Cousins and Anthony Davis together, trying to beat teams with size. I look at a team like the Timberwolves dominating now and think that KAT and Gobert are just "Do It Big 2.0."
I swear this isn't Dell's burner email! I think it just goes to show that GMs shouldn't just be graded on whether or not they are good or bad, but like Dell's time in NOLA proved, you're either lucky or unlucky.
Mike G.
Hey Mike, thanks for the kind words. I love this question. I thought a lot of what Dell did during his time was fundamentally sound and rationally correct. He had his flaws in being unable to assess sunk costs, and paying market premium deals to players that didn’t move the needle. However, from a transaction standpoint, Dell was indeed ahead of his time. I wish Tom Benson supplied Dell with better resources than we was provided at that time. However, as good as he was in making trades for savvy young vets, the amount of cap space they hemorrhaged on non-needle movers reduced any margin for error -which was razor thin without a supply of draft picks. They had no ability to survive constant injuries and no way to replenish talent through cost controlled assets.
Nevertheless, his aggression in attempting to surround Anthony Davis with star caliber players was admirable and I wish there was similar aggression currently.
Happy holidays! In the N.O. is BY FAR the best and most insightful writing available out there on our Pels, and I look forward to it in my inbox. A question, trending on your recent thoughts on Trey's usage: do you foresee the possibility that Trey supplants either BI or Zion as one of the twin axes this team is "built" on? Can he be a player you actually build around as a true superstar - as perhaps a player that is more dependable (both on the court and in health) and more "modern" than either of our terrible twosome? Is more than a max contract possible for him, even if it results in jettisoning one of those others? Or is he fated to always be a support piece alongside better players?Keep up the great work!
Hey James, I really appreciate the kind words! With regards to Trey, I think any talk of supplanting is premature without first seeing how he works with the star duo together. I think the current actions of the organization have created a false dichotomy so to speak, where the only way Trey ends up starting is replacing one of the main guys. I would love for them to give Trey an earnest opportunity to play with Zion and BI before they move in a different direction. Can it be a big three rather than a “twin axes”? They should spend as much time figuring this out before it is too late.
Can you predict Naji's next contract and some teams you could see him on
What up Retro! I think 3 years, $21 million is a fair deal for Naji. This averages out to $7 million per year and is comparable to what Jae’Sean Tate and Caleb Martin got. Most teams can use a guy on that kind of contract, though I can see teams like Detroit and Indiana being aggressive suitors due to their lack of wing depth and toughness.
Shamit - what’s your most plausible take on how we improve - send something like CJ, Dyson and picks for a big fish like Donovan or waiting for a Towns/Porzingis stretch big. Basically it’s tough to crack the closing rotation and all of our guys are really good..just maybe not good enough?
Hey Daniel, since you asked for plausibility - the most plausible way they improve is turning JV into Jarrett Allen, and maybe upgrading the bench in a minor way. I do not expect any star level moves to occur at the deadline.
If we had (or if we eventually end up getting) the kind of Zion Williamson who dominated opponents last December, would the Pels be a true contender this season?
Hey Ryan. I hesitate to proclaim the Pelicans as true contenders due to their lack of overall experience in the playoffs. I think the best players in the world right now are playing at an ungodly level, and the Pelicans, while they would be a tough out, would not be able to hang for three series until the finals.
Hey Shamit, thanks for doing this. In your time covering the team, who is the biggest name you believe had a realistic shot of coming to the team via trade, but it fell through later in the process?
Hey Eric, great question. Believe it or not, they had a trade lined up to select Giannis on draft night that fell through. They were also whispers about Kevin Durant during the Davis era, but I don’t think that was a real possibility. They made overtures towards Paul George, before ultimately not having the assets. My all time favorite what if is Chris Paul for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson - a deal that would likely have gotten done if Paul agreed to sign a deal in Golden State after his option. He did not want to be there, and thus no deal was made.
One thing I believe is that if the Pelicans really wanted Damian Lillard this past summer, they could have gotten him.
Is it concerning that 30 games in this may be who Zion is? As for a slightly diminished version who in year five hasn’t seemed to add much to his game. Also, concerning or not, how would you proceed leading up to the trade deadline considering the current roster and rotations? Thanks and always appreciate your insight.
Hey David, thanks for writing in. With regards to Zion - I am a little less alarmist. Big picture wise, I have definitely change my opinion on if he has “best player in the league” potential. This is mostly due to how good other players have gotten, and has less to do with Zion overall. For example, Joel Embiid is averaging 35 points per game on 65% TS, double digit rebounds, and playing DPOY caliber defense. Many people would not disagree if you said Embiid is not the best player in the world. The bar is simply too high to reach those heights for Zion, in my opinion. I think he can have a top 10 player level impact at his best, and generally feel he has trended upwards as a player this season. It is entirely on him, however, to maintain that trajectory.
This concludes this edition of the subscriber mailbag. I appreciate everyone who took the time to submit, and apologize if I did not get to your question.
Best,
Shamit