18 Prospects Who Might Become Something

Don't call it a big board

The NBA draft is endlessly fascinating for fans, analysts, and executives alike. Each year scores of people agonize over stats, film, and everything else to compile a list of their favorite prospects. Here I am doing the same thing with a slightly different approach. I am going to present 18 players who I think may return value on their rookie scale contracts. These won’t be detailed scouting reports or statistical profiles, but rather cases why I think they will return positive value and how good I think their chances are of doing it.

Important note, if I was in charge of a team and making these decisions, it’s very likely I would not follow my own board here. Teams should always err on the side of extreme right tail outcomes. In other words, some of the guys I have put in this order are those who I project to return value quickly, but they do not have great ceilings. In the real world, you need to make bets on variance even if there is a healthy chance of failure.

Before we begin though, I need to explain a little bit about my overall philosophy and methodology. I have a few core tenets that help shape my overall selections.

TENET 1: No Alumni Credit

Success in the draft cannot be defined by what the player goes onto do when they leave the team that drafted them.

It’s human tendency to go, “I selected this player, and they ended up good, therefore it was a good eval on my side”. This tendency is both flawed and detrimental to team building.

A study I did in 2020 that looked at every draft from 1999-2015 determined that only 31.1% of players selected in the first round made it to a second contract with the team that drafted them.

This means roughly 70% of players will be on a different team by the time their rookie scale is over. What those players do on their new teams cannot be counted as value or win for the original team

TENET 2: Only Rookie Scale Value Matters

Beyond no alumni credit, I’ll go one step further and say success should primarily be defined by how much value is produced while that player is on the rookie scale.

You see, the true value of drafted players is the ability to significantly outproduce their salary slots in a way that is rare for players acquire through free agency or trades. In the latter situations, the market tends to correct itself to a degree and the potential for truly outsized returns is far lower than the cost controlled nature of the rookie scale contract.

The ability to retain that talent via restricted rights, should it truly bloom, is yet another component of value, but it is easily one that gets teams into trouble as well—with overpays to retain guys rather than to risk losing them for “nothing”.

Nevertheless, I will be focused on rookie scale contract only, and ranking prospects based on who I think will produce value during the first 4 years. The reasons for this are twofold

1. If 70% of players are not given second contracts by their original teams, then the production during the first 4 years is paramount.

2. It takes on average 4 years for an average first round pick to outproduce an average vet minimum contract, if they ever end up doing it. I am ONLY interested in players who have a chance to outproduce someone I can sign cheaply in free agency.
   
   

   

   Posted from the 2020 study I conducted on first round production compared to veteran minimums.

TENET 3: Don’t Draft For Positional Fit

So much of draft analysis focuses on what a team needs, and how they should operate based on their current roster situation. I think that is a fundamentally flawed approach to the draft. By the time this player is ready to contribute in any meaningful way, over 70% of his teammates will be different. So just draft the best guy and worry about positional fit later. There are some extreme cases where if you already have 2 mediocre single position players (meaning they don’t have positional versatility), you probably shouldn’t add a third. But also why hold onto the 2 you already have? Philly certainly did not hold onto all three of Okafor, Noel, and Embiid. They made the correct choice and moved forward.

TENET 4: Efficient Production is Important

On the most basic level, I prioritize players who are already efficient. If a player struggles to be efficient at lower levels, I am not counting on it getting easier for them at higher levels. For every Jaylen Brown who has turned it around there are a dozen misplaced bets on Cam Reddish or Johnny Davis.

However efficiency can’t be the only trait. Production needs to follow as well. Broadly speaking the all-encompassing BPM stat serves as a great proxy here. I don’t lean on it exclusively by any means, but it’s a great way to tie in how productive a player is on a per minute basis. There are some studies out there that suggest that if a person were to draft solely on BPM, they would outperform an average GM. Still, this is not the final piece of a player’s eval, but a conversation starter.

TENET 5: The League Is Built On Outliers

Jokic, Wemby, LeBron, Steph, Jordan, Durant, Magic - wherever you look, the league is built on outlier skill, size, athleticism, or all the above. Of course we can try to account for obvious outlier characteristics that show up in a player’s measurables or combine testing, but a core part of my belief is that we are inherently poor at identifying outliers. Draymond Green will go down as one of the best defenders of all time, yet at the draft he was perceived as a “safe, low ceiling pick”, yet he has returned historical output and value. Likewise, we have seen physical outliers like Mo Bamba or Hasheem Thabeet completely fail.

Nevertheless, when we combine some outlier trait with high level production - good results typically follow.

TENET 6: Age Matters

Every draft cycle there will be a litany of pundits claiming some older college prospects are “more NBA ready” than the 19 year old freshmen due to their experience.

There is no statistical evidence to support this claim. The NBA draft is largely self selecting in this matter - if a player is NBA ready, they are ready. The most NBA ready player in this draft is also likely its youngest - Cooper Flagg. Now future generations might skew a little here with NIL incentives pulling “NBA ready” prospects out of the current pool.

However, I will prioritize high production at a young age, over high production at an older age - all things considered. What I won’t do is project forward an unproductive freshman over a far more productive upperclassman.

TENET 7: Size Matters

Last but not least, size is important for an NBA player. Taller, bigger players need a less complete offensive skillset to provide value, while small guards almost need all-star level production to offset their physical deficiency. This is not always the case, but in general, the smaller you are, the more important offensive production is. Subpar offensive production can be offset by defense, but again this is a scale - even for bigs. Rudy Gobert doesn’t get played off the court due to his defense. But the offensive challenges he provides in the playoffs are difficult to overcome. Without further ado, let’s begin!

TIER 1: Franchise Cornerstone

1. Cooper Flagg - Cooper stands alone in this tier. He is the perfect intersection of incredibly high level production (highest freshman BPM since Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson), age (youngest player in the draft), size and skill. He is the best player in this class and will assuredly return surplus value on his rookie deal barring catastrophic injury. His defense, passing, rebounding are all pathways that lead him to providing value even if his offense never comes along. If his offense clicks, Cooper will be a bonafide superstar.

TIER 2: Allstar/ Fringe Allstar Upside

2. Dylan Harper - The case for Dylan to return value on his rookie scale deal rests on his incredible rim pressure and finishing. Few freshman have had seasons like the one he produced at Rutgers when it comes to capitalizing at the rim. Guard play is so incredibly important in the NBA and he is likely entering an extremely favorable team context with the Spurs. This will be a significant improvement to his context at Rutgers. The world where Dylan does not return clear value is one where his shooting does not progress and NBA level athletes are able to stymie his driving game.

TIER 3: Quality Starter

3. Collin Murray-Boyles - Murray Boyles is our first weirdo. He does not fit into a traditional positional mold. He is an interior scorer with the size of a wing. Nevertheless, CMB was incredibly efficient - even against top 50 opponents and in the half court. He sported a 62.3 TS in the half court setting, and this was on a poorly constructed South Carolina team. Imagine if they unleashed him in transition. His BPM pops, his efficiency pops, and he happens to be a fantastic rebounder and defender as well. The pathways for him to return value on the rookie scale are multi-fold.

   The violence and tenacity that CMB plays with on defense reminds me very much of the Pelicans’ own Herb Jones. Passing lanes are not safe, post up bigs will struggle to gain positioning, and ball handlers should beware of the blitz. Jones ended up going 35th in the draft due to age and shooting concerns but has returned top 10 value. CMB is a far better offensive prospect than Jones. He will pick apart defenses with wide array of passes, he will finish at much high clip, and he can punish smaller defenders with his physicality. If he develops a shot, that is just gravy. I mean look at what Franz Wagner is doing with a broken three ball.

   There is going to be a tendency to write CMB off due to his lack of shooting and his weird skillset relative to his size. But I urge folks to remember Paul Millsap who was similarly overlooked, and fell all the way to pick 47. CMB won’t fall that far, but I think his floor is a bigger Josh Hart - and that is a very productive player to me. I genuinely think CMB might be the most fail proof player in the draft behind Cooper.

4. Khaman Maluach - Khaman is our first all tools bet. His incredible 9’6’’ standing reach and functional mobility provide the blue print of an impactful defender. Duke’s scheme had him playing out on the perimeter quite often, which in my opinion contributed to his modest block and defensive rebounding numbers. Yet Duke opponents shot only 48% at the rim while Khaman was on the court, a number that rises by over 6% when he sits. He will provide value offensively by being an elite vertical spacer and play finisher. Should he expand range, he will become a massively valuable player. Either way, Khaman will put pressure on defenses by simply existing. Teams with small low man help will get punished by his enormous catch radius. Pick your poison - a dunk or a corner three?

   The world where Khaman doesn’t provide value on the rookie scale is one where his processing does not improve, he struggles with the physicality of the NBA, and the defensive impact never arrives.

5. VJ Edgecombe - I think the floor with VJ is relatively high. He should be able to provide value on the rookie scale contract via his defense, transition scoring, and connective passing. VJ has potential to be a disruptive defender, which is often enough to get a player on the court. His athletic tools will find him easy buckets and he will keep the half court offense flowing with his processing. Can he buy into the Cason Wallace role out of the gate? If so, watch out.

   VJ will not provide value on the rookie scale if his shot never develops, he can’t reliably create offense for himself or others, and the defense takes longer than anticipated to arrive. Still, VJ’s combination of physical gifts and defensive upside give me enough confidence to bet on returning value.

TIER 4: Rotation Player

6. Kon Knuepple - If Kon went to a program where he was THE guy on his team, would we be talking about him as a surefire top 3 pick? Hard to say, but his performance sans Cooper late in the season definitely led me to wonder what it could have been.

   Kon is the efficiency bet. Someone so efficient across the board with acceptable secondary playmaking skills will find a way onto the court and provide value for the team that drafts him. His shot credibility will lend closeouts - from which he will be a capable decision maker. He should also excel in a DHO game with savvy bigs.
   
   The downside, of course, is Kon ends up being someone who can only find offense from the three ball. The impact of those players is always severely limited, even in best case scenarios. Even Buddy Hield, who is one of the best shooters to ever play the game, has never quite been a player who impacts winning with regards to the point differential. Such players are also available for quite cheap in the free agency and trade space. Nevertheless, Kon’s efficiency is exceptional and I buy the ancillary skills.

7. Thomas Sorber - The case for Sorber is incredibly easy to me, and the case is that he is the highest floor big in the class. He does everything you want from your big. Need a rebound? Don’t worry, he has a 22% defensive rebound rate. Need a hard screen set? Sorber will do it. Shot blocking? Sure thing, he has a 7’6 wingspan which affords him not only a 7.6% block rate, but opponents shoot 14% worse at the rim when he is on the court vs off. I have not seen a larger differential in the past 8 years since - as far back as the data goes. He has tremendous motor and strength. He just seems incredibly annoying to play against night in and night out - and that is exactly the kind of dirty work big-man every team needs.
   
   Offensively, Sorber is an extremely quick processor and nifty passer. He doesn’t project to have much range, but doesn’t need it. He understands spacing and more importantly, how to link players together. He is extremely Steven Adams coded here. There is a lot to like from a guy who measured longer, taller, and heavier than Wendell Carter. It’s hard not to see this guy in the league for 10+ years barring injury.

8. Walter Clayton Jr. - Three ball go brrrrrrrr. Clayton has a case for the most dynamic and lethal shooter in the draft class. His confidence in launching threes from the logo, off the dribble, off the catch, on the move— it’s not matched by any other prospect in the draft. When looking at the history of small guards who have returned rookie scale value, a great number of them do so by virtue of their shot. Clayton has it and his shot credibility will open up driving lanes and playmaking chances.
   
   Clayton was efficient, extremely productive against tougher competition, and has decent defensive chops for his position. Regardless of age, I will bet on an ever valuable skillset in off the dribble shooting.
   
   Like with other guards, if the offense is not good enough, Clayton will struggle to provide impact, so if he fails - look at his shot making first.

9. Noa Essengue - Noa is the second youngest player in this class behind Cooper and is already producing in a professional setting. The bet on Noa is a bet on extreme transition skills and play finishing. He thrives in the open court and pressures teams like few others. He displays quick processing and is able to make the correct reads on the fly and in chaos. In the half court he is an intuitive cutter who understands space. What he lacks in strength he makes up for with an absurd 76% free throw attempt rate. He also has the tools to be disruptive defensively. The bet is a tools + production combination at a very very young age.
   
   Where Noa differs from other rangy mystery boxes such as Ousmane Dieng is the actual efficiency vs theoretical. He’s already found an offensive role despite his individual skillset still resembling a ball of clay. Nevertheless, you can’t thrive in the NBA on cutting and transition alone. It will be interesting to see how Noa develops as a shooter and driver in the half court setting. Teams will attempt to get away with guarding Noa with their smallest or weakest defenders. It will be imperative for Noa develop good screening technique to generate switches and easy baskets while we wait for the strength progress.

10. Jeremiah Fears - Fears is the first guy I have been skeptical of all season. Generally I am scared of small guards who need the ball, struggle to shoot, and struggle to finish at the rim. Fears shot 45% at the rim in the half court setting, which is extremely poor. This is combined with a 28% three point percentage gave me heartburn. But more than one analytical model I have looked at really believes in Fears.
    
    Fears had a tremendous shot creation load as one of the youngest players in the draft - resembling those of 4 year players. Despite all the poor finishing and shooting from deep, Fears was able to keep his efficiency relatively afloat by getting to the line at a high clip and excelling in the midrange. Fears has a variety of dribble moves, counters, and hesitation that allow him to operate in the paint and keep the water flowing.
    

    Fears will provide value on the rookie scale if he’s allowed to handle lead guard duties. I anticipate a slow rookie year as was common for his archetype — but once the advantage creation sets in and turnovers slow, Fears projects to be a guy who will pressure defenses in both transition and the half court. Guys with his upside will always have a chance to return value on the rookie scale.

    The failure conditions for Fears are quite straight forward. If his offense doesn’t boom quickly, his size limitations will do him in. Likewise, teams will cede ballhandling duties to more efficient playmakers.

11. Jase Richardson - Jase is another case of incredible possession efficiency. His game screams pro-ready to me. His shot selection was elite, he had a miniscule turnover rate, and was efficient both from deep and at the rim. He didn’t see an efficiency drop off in the half court setting, and displays a ton of scalability with his ability to toggle on and off the ball. Oh and he gets to the free throw line at a good clip to boot. Do I need to mention efficient again, I think I said it like seven times.
    
    There will be a tendency to write him off because of his lack of size and playmaking. However, Jase made efficient reads and competed defensively. He will be best paired with a larger primary creator, because as a connective piece Jase has the goods. I write this as I watch Andrew Nembhard make big play after big play in the finals - Jase has a similar ability to break down a defense but compliment another guard. Look if a guy like Payton Pritchard can provide value, so can Jase. I’d love for the Magic to find a way to pair him with their jumbo creators and Suggs.

12. Kasparas Jakucionis - Jaku is a creator bet. He has an argument for top 3 passer in this class. Moreover, he is crafty with the handle, has a step back that will open up the rest of his game, and gets to the line ton. He was efficient, productive, and can toggle on and off the ball. He has enough size to not be a total defensive liability.

13. Ryan Kalkbrenner - Along with Sorber, I think Kalkbrenner has an argument for the highest floor big in the class. If I told you he was a better play finisher than Khaman, would that blow your mind? There is such a projectable role for Ryan on both ends. He should function as a high level drop big on defense. Yeah sure maybe he doesn’t close games for you all the time, but he will find a way to carve out 20MPG of defense and efficient scoring.
    
    Offensively Kalkbrenner is an underrated lob threat and pick and roll target. He is also a switch beater with legitimate ability to score over smalls. I think this the classic big that teams overthink due to a low projectable ceiling. They over thought it with Quinten Post, and Ryan is far more mobile in my opinion. Shoot, Zubac is still tearing it up in the league and just earned all defense honors. Ryan will play hard, score well, and block shots. Easy value.

14. Rasheer Flemming - Flemming measured out comparably to Jarrett Allen and is more fluid moving around the perimeter. He has an easy, projectable role as a 3 and D forward/small ball center who will play disruptive defense. Maybe he ends up similar to Obi Toppin for the Pacers in role, who has provided value throughout this post season run. Nevertheless, there is little “star” upside here from a traditional sense, yet Flemming could very well be a player that returns outsized value due to defensive impact and efficient offense.
    
    Even if the shot takes longer to develop, Flemming is a capable and willing screener. He dives hard and has a massive catch radius as well. There are just too many pathways for him to provide value that it’s difficult seeing him not return any during the rookie scale.

15. Cedric Coward - I honestly can have Coward much higher on this list. He’s every NBA team’s dream wing player if everything translates. The upside is a high level shooter who can defend multiple positions. The less than perfect outcome is still a wing who gets to the free throw line, has a long wingspan that collects rebounds, blocks, and steals. Coaches will want to find a way to work Cedric into the rotation quickly.
    
    The failure outcomes are related to the offense not translating against the higher level competition of the NBA. NBA rosters have crunched through dozens of wings who just can’t provide enough offensive utility to be playable.

16. Derik Queen - Full disclosure - I love Queen. I’d be tempted to draft him as soon as 6 overall. He is incredibly productive and I think there is real untapped passing upside. However, I struggle to see many coaching staffs really enabling him and letting him cook.
    
    Queen is frankly uninterested defensively and that is a cardinal sin for most coaches. He also profiles as a player who is difficult to build around - caught between the 4 and 5 positions. He can’t provide defensive value as a 5, but offensively might just need to play there to be fully unlocked. Nevertheless, I think he will be able to play with another big and there is a pathway for him to return fantastic value on the rookie scale if his offense really pops. This may have to come from a reserve role to start his career and perhaps he can be a change of pace player. But if teams do not commit to him offensively ( and if he proves he just isn’t good enough) he will find himself out of the league very quickly.
    
    I still believe in him. He’s kicked ass at every level of play.

17. Ace Bailey - This is going to be an extremely controversial spot for Bailey. Look in the real world, he is never falling this far. After a certain spot in the draft, you kind of have to take him because there are truly not many better upside bets than him. I am not gainfully employed by an NBA team, but if I was, I’m not sure I’d be the guy who would take Ryan Kalkbrenner over Ace no matter what the models said. But I am writing about returning value on a rookie deal and the likelihood of it.

    Bailey models really poorly. He was inefficient in college with an extremely tough shot diet. It’s easy to fall for the allure of a tall, tough shot maker - I totally get it. But his impact was incredibly muted. With a BPM at 3.5 - there is such a poor track record of players with this market panning out as “stars”. The only two examples that come kind of close are Zach Lavine and Jaylen Brown. Even here, there is a debate among executives just how impactful Lavine is to winning.
    
    Bailey had a 51.1% TS against top 50 opponents. With all his athleticism he still struggles to finish at the rim, shooting only 55.2% in the half court setting. His preferred shot diet is the most inefficient shot in the league, albeit he is very good at it. He just doesn’t create advantages or make quick enough reads when he does find advantages.
    
    Nevertheless there is a world where Bailey comes into the NBA and immediately fills a lane as a forward who is relentless in transition, crashes the boards viciously, and happily adjusts his shot selection to launch threes. That version of Bailey could be a very good player. But does he have any desire to do that? Does a team that is actually high on him have any desire to turn him into that?
    
    Take a look at Jabari Smith. I think Smith was a better prospect across the board. To date, he has returned the 13th best VORP in his class, and has a negative BPM. What evidence do I have that Bailey is going to be better than this? 17 may feel low, but it also feels right given how Smith has panned out.
    

18. Johni Broome - You don’t just luck into the the second highest BPM in the draft class behind Cooper Flagg. As I mentioned before, there is a pretty good correlation with college BPM and NBA production. I will let the data make the decision for me on my final spot here and trust Broome can carve out a role as a back up big in the NBA for a long time with his IQ, toughness, and inhalation of rebounds.

REST OF THE FIRST ROUND

19. Nique Clifford

20. Egor Demin

21. Danny Wolf

22. Tre Johnson - This is the only one I will write about in this category. After doing a ton of research, I have come to the conclusion that I just don’t buy this archetype of player. This archetype is the scoring guard who doesn’t provide value as a creator, defender, and pretty much anywhere else. So many of Tre’s archetypes are around the league and virtually none of them move the needle towards winning during the rookie contracts, if at all.

23. Bogoljub Markovic

24. Nolan Traore

25. Kam Jones

26. Noah Penda

27. Asa Newell

28. Javon Small

29. Sion James

30. Carter Bryant